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Paranoia operation: No, Russia is not on the verge of a coup — Galeotti

Sergey Lavrov, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Shoigu. Photo: Kremlin Press Service

Russia is not on the verge of a coup — this is a psychological operation. This is what analyst Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russia, writes in The Spectator magazine.

He commented on the "sudden wave of news reports that a conveniently anonymous "European intelligence agency" claims that the Kremlin fears a coup."

It looks more like a psychological operation designed to cause paranoia in the Russian elite, but not as a serious assessment of the situation, Galeotti notes.

It is alleged that Putin's personal security has been significantly strengthened not only to protect against increasingly frequent and large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes, but also because since the beginning of March, the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin himself have been concerned about the risk of a conspiracy or attempted coup against the Russian president. In particular, it is claimed that Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Defense until 2024 and now secretary of the country's Security Council, "is associated with the possibility of a coup, since he retains significant influence in the supreme military command," the article says.

According to the author, this is impossible because the Russian security system is carefully organized to minimize the risk of a coup. He finds it especially funny to portray Shoigu as a putschist.

"It is difficult or impossible to imagine that he has the authority and authority in the high command to stage a coup, not to mention the freedom of action," the analyst writes.

He also considers the allegations concerning Putin's increased security questionable, since, contrary to statements, the Russian leader is present at public events, including a recent meeting with the Iranian foreign minister.

"Perhaps these are more dubious intelligence reports that appeared after the Swedish report, which dramatically exaggerated the pressure on the Russian economy. In Europe, there is a desperate thirst for deus ex machina, some kind of miraculous end to the war in Ukraine. The idea that Putin could be overthrown in a coup or that the country would collapse certainly fits this task. This is far from the first time that intelligence services have succumbed to the temptation to provide their masters with what they want to hear, and do not need to hear.

However, given the news that NATO is meeting with film and television producers in the hope of influencing their products, it is worth remembering that this may be a deliberate deception. Perhaps the idea is to inspire people's thoughts. Perhaps to make Putin turn away from Shoigu, who is a personal friend, and make the rest of the elite wonder if they will be next. This is far from the first time we have seen such a distraction in the secret shadow wars waged by spies," concludes Galeotti.

As EADaily reported, NATO is looking for art representatives around the world to promote the alliance. This was reported by the British The Guardian with reference to the letter with which she got acquainted.

It was noted that NATO representatives hold closed meetings with screenwriters, directors and producers of film and television throughout Europe and the United States.

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16.07.2026

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