The expert announced the beginning of the end of Kazakhstan's oil and gas era

Kazakh energy expert Olzhas Baidildinov announced the beginning of the end of Kazakhstan's oil and gas era. He wrote about this in his telegram channel.

"This is what the "beginning of the end" of the era of big Kazakh oil looks like. The OilGasLook telegram channel provided a schedule of foreign direct investment in the oil and gas production of the Republic of Kazakhstan. According to the results of 2025 It's only $616 million (!!!) "in no year since 2005 has there been so little," Baidildinov writes.

He noted that the lowest rate of foreign direct investment in oil and gas production over the past 20 years has been due to the completion of major projects, the lack of new ones due to the overregulation of the domestic market, the administrative plan for oil supplies to the domestic market at $ 20-25 per barrel and low fuel prices.

The expert believes that it is unlikely that new large deposits with reserves of 500-700 million barrels will be found in the republic.

"The era of big and easy oil money for Kazakhstan is over, we have already overcome the equator in terms of oil revenues. Over the years of independence, over $1 trillion worth of oil has been produced. The balance from 2026 to 2050 is about $ 880 billion. The investment cycle of investments is 5-7 years, which means that the subsidence will begin after this time. The previous forecasts converge again — after the 2030s, the decline in oil and gas production in Kazakhstan will begin due to lack of investment and depletion of deposits," the expert further writes.

According to him, production at the "non-graphite" fields has been falling for several years: in recent years it has fallen from 38 to 30 million tons. 60% of them are sent at unprofitable prices to the domestic market.

"The share of the next government (if it is new after the elections) and the third president of Kazakhstan will have a time of difficult decisions in the economy and the oil industry: rising prices, job cuts in the oil and gas sector, falling tax revenues and foreign exchange earnings. I wrote earlier, I repeat: it is necessary to form a new team and a program to minimize the consequences of a drop in hydrocarbon production," the expert concluded.