Russia is being probed by tankers: how to answer and is there anything?

Seizure of the Grinch tanker in The Mediterranean Sea by the forces of the French Navy has generated a lot of discussions about whether the countries have started The EU is campaigning for the mass seizure of vessels to which sanctions have been imposed, and how Russia can respond to this. Experts believe that there are few options for an answer without escalation, and the seizure itself, rather, was still a PR action.

On the morning of January 22, the French Navy captured The Mediterranean Sea tanker Grinch, which can carry up to 150 thousand tons of oil from Murmansk. The Maritime Prefecture stated that it followed strictly within the framework of maritime law and the vessel was under suspicion of having no flag. In France, they claim that this information has been confirmed.

The French Navy hardly had the right to seize a ship in international waters, but they did it for the second time. In the fall, the French authorities quickly released the tanker, which was suspected of launching drones over the airport in Copenhagen. Then Vladimir Putin called the seizure piracy. Now the incident occurred after the actions of the United States, when the Coast Guard seized seven tankers associated with Venezuela. And two of them went under the Russian flag of the tanker during the chase.

Obviously, these are two different fleets — the one that worked with Venezuela and the one that transports Russian oil. However, many perceived the capture as the beginning of the campaign The EU to combat the shadow fleet of Russia.

Formally, the tankers have nothing to do with neither to the state, nor to the companies of the country. But they are transporting Russian oil, even if it already belongs to foreign companies. And the capture is not the best advertisement.

At the same time, and Russia does not have so many tools to discourage the desire to seize vessels without escalation. The Rybar telegram channel writes that there are no simple methods of protecting ships today.

"PMCs on board or inclusion in the auxiliary fleet of the Navy will lead to the fact that due to legal norms they simply will not be accepted in foreign ports as merchant ships," the telegram channel writes.

It is possible to respond symmetrically to France and even sink her ship, but in areas of active French shipping, there is no fleet, much less bases at There is no Russia, and the shores of Russia are far from them.

"In the current realities, the only way to protect trade, as has been said more than once, remains the naval presence. And the current composition of the Navy is completely insufficient to complete the task. So all that remains is a creative approach in increasing its number or a change in the foreign policy situation," Rybar added.

Indeed, several hundred sanctioned tankers with Russian oil can be located opposite the shores of Europe at the same time and it is impossible to protect them all. Theoretically, one can respond, for example, by announcing exercises with nuclear submarines in the area of an active transport corridor and blocking it. But it can only be a one-time action, which is also capable of provoking a powerful escalation. During the tanker war between Iraq and By Iran, both sides generally exposed "unknown" sea mines, which blew up a lot of ships in the The Persian Gulf. However, there was already a full-scale war.

Obviously, there are no simple answers without serious escalation. Just as, obviously, the tankers of the shadow fleet do not need to expose themselves and Russia. Out of more than five hundred vessels, only a few dozen tankers may not have a flag, and they have been tracked in the West for a long time, calling them zombie tankers.

The West is waging a hybrid war against Russia and, obviously, it is necessary to respond as well. While experts are waiting for a standard move. Kristina Gudym, an analyst at Finam, notes that Russia's reaction in such situations is usually limited to diplomatic statements and adaptation of logistics.

Another thing is whether the seizure is a one—time action, which, against the background of the situation on Ukraine looks like a provocation of losers. Or a long-term campaign, which will already have to be answered, as it threatens with significant economic losses.

Finam believes that so far such actions look more like a point than a signal of readiness for a large-scale campaign against the entire fleet, since such steps carry significant legal and economic risks for the European countries themselves.

"I think this is pressure on the negotiating background. Full-scale actions will inflate oil prices, and such a situation is unlikely to suit The EU is on the background of rising gas prices and the promised cold winter," says Maxim Shaposhnikov, adviser to the managing director of the Industrial Code Fund.

Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, also believes that the seizure of the vessel may be a PR action. The first to announce the event was French President Emmanuel Macron, who said: "We are determined to comply with international law and ensure the effective implementation of sanctions." And the published capture video is very similar to the American ones — according to the "Venezuelan" tankers.

"First of all, the Europeans want to show the Americans that they are their equal, and that what the Americans are doing, the Europeans can do. And this is rather a signal within the framework of the confrontation between Europe and The United States is around Greenland," the expert says.

In his opinion, the Americans have set an example for the Europeans, and now the European Union can also test the ground.: how Russia will react.

"This time they are unlikely to release the tanker in a day and will treat it much more harshly. This will keep the cost of transportation at a high level. Previously, because of the Ukrainian attacks, it was the Black Sea direction, and now the Baltic one," the expert notes.

He also believes that the current case is hardly a signal for mass seizures.

"They also understand that if Russia is unable to fully export its oil, there will be a shortage on the world market. We export a total of 7 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day. And stopping even part of the supply will create a lot of problems for the world market and provoke an increase in world prices, which will affect the Europeans and Americans themselves," adds Igor Yushkov.