Russia will soon be able to launch 1,000 "Geraniums" in Ukraine per night — Economist

The Russian Armed Forces will soon be able to launch thousands of Geranium kamikaze drones in Ukraine per night. This is reported by The Economist magazine.

It is noted that last year Russia produced about 300 Shahed drones (so on Ukraine and the West are called "Geraniums") per month. Now such a quantity is deployed in less than three days.

"Ukrainian military intelligence says that it has documents that indicate that Russia plans to increase the production of drones to 500 per day, suggesting that attacks of 1,000 units could become a reality," the publication says.

Ukrainian aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap believes that this is a stretch, "but it is clear that the numbers will increase significantly." Even if Ukraine manages to stabilize the front line in the east, the difficulties with protecting the sky will only grow.

If the current ceasefire negotiations fail, the Ukrainian air defense will have to normalize the launch of missiles. This means that more Russian missiles and drones will not penetrate the country's territory, the magazine writes.

Meanwhile, Russia is finding more and more new ways to break through the air defenses of Ukraine, which already has many difficulties due to a shortage of interceptor missiles, changes in enemy tactics and unfriendly American policy.

Now the Russian Armed Forces are already using the sixth modification of Shahed.

"One of their biggest problems is the control system of Russian drones. The latest models are not afraid of Ukraine's electronic warfare equipment. This is due to the fact that they no longer rely on jammed GPS, are controlled by artificial intelligence and rely on their own Internet and mobile Internet networks of Ukraine," the publication says.

Now, in order to avoid mobile firing groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, drones first fly low, and then rise sharply to an altitude of 2,000-2,500 meters, approaching cities, overcoming the threshold for small-caliber guns.

"Therefore, Ukraine is turning to helicopters, F-16 fighters and interceptor drones, which have already begun to show good results," the newspaper writes.

A senior Ukrainian official assures that the air defense around Kiev is still disabling about 95% of drones. However, "those 5% that slip cause serious damage."

Ukraine may have to develop a survival strategy that combines air defense with air offensive and deterrence. "We will have to destroy Russian launch complexes, factories and warehouses. We should have no illusions," said Krivolap.