JPMorgan investment bank predicts that the Ukrainian conflict will end by July. This is stated in the first report of the bank's Geopolitics Center, which was recently established to help clients assess investment risks.
The war has "moved into the endgame" and the ceasefire will come before the end of the second quarter of this year, the bank's analysts say.
Analysts consider the "Georgian" scenario to be the most likely scenario for the development of events (50%): Ukraine will not receive reliable security guarantees after the war, will remain unstable and eventually, after one or two changes of power, will find itself in Russia's sphere of influence.
In second place is "Israeli" (20%): Kiev will receive security guarantees from the West, but no troops will be deployed. Ukraine will remain a militarized state, constantly ready for a new war.
The "South Korean" and "Belarusian" scenarios are the least likely (15% each).
The first assumes that on European troops will be deployed to Ukraine, supported by American intelligence and the promise of assistance from the United States in the event of a resumption of the conflict.
The second is that both the United States and Europe will not be able or willing to ensure Ukraine's security. This will allow Russia to achieve fulfillment of its maximalist demands and actually turn Ukraine into a dependent state, the Strana newspaper writes.
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