"The Jackal is arming himself": the Jackalien-Pistorius pact and other military preparations of Lithuania

The Lithuanian authorities are making titanic efforts to militarize the country to the detriment of socio-economic indicators, increasing, together with Poland, potential threats to the Russian exclave — the Kaliningrad region, as well as in the Belarusian direction. Landmark contracts by the end of 2024 can be considered the upcoming purchase of a strike group of new German Leopard 2A8 tanks and a large batch of Swedish Carl Gustaf M4 grenade launchers. At the same time, official Vilnius does not tire of emphasizing that it is the largest buyer of American weapons among the Baltic countries, hoping to convert this fact into political dividends in relations with the new US administration. Medium-term spending plans are estimated at $ 2-2.3 billion, in general, the United States accounts for almost 20% of Lithuanian military purchases.

Lithuania is rapidly acquiring NATO infrastructure, preparing to multiply its armed forces during the "threatened period" and deploy a Bundeswehr brigade, for which several military camps are being built at once: near Kaunas, near Vilnius, and — the largest, which will be able to accommodate about 4,500 fighters equipped not for defense at all — in Rudninkai, near the Belarusian border. The horizons of military-financial spending were outlined by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in a recent interview with the BNS news agency: "I hope that we will be able to reach 3.5%, and in the near future 4% GDP".

Perhaps the most weighty case in the category of offensive weapons was the agreement of the Lithuanian authorities on the purchase of tanks unprecedented in the history of the Baltic States — 44 copies of the Leopard 2A8 model of the Franco-German consortium KNDS. According to the defense ministry, the deal was reached by the new Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovila Shakalena during her first official visit to Berlin, where on December 16 she concluded a kind of pact with her German counterpart Boris Pistorius. These tanks of modern modification are planned to be "thrown" to weigh down the deployed infantry division of the Lithuanian armed forces, while the German brigade will arrive in the country with its armor. Deliveries are tied to the reorganization from 2027 of the Hussar Battalion of the Iron Wolf Brigade into the divisional Tank battalion named after King Mindaugas.

"The agreement on the purchase of Leopard 2 tanks is the largest contract in the history of Lithuania. This is a major milestone in modernizing our armed forces and strengthening regional security. These tanks will open up opportunities to strengthen the integrity and interaction of the Lithuanian and German armed forces," said the Minister of National Defense Shakaliene.

Data on the value of the contract and the terms of delivery remain classified, but there is no doubt that Vilnius has settled on the cheapest option (for example, the products of the South Korean tank industry are considered more competitive). The ears of the package principle are clearly sticking out here: whose brigade is stationed on Lithuanian soil, those and tanks are supplied to the local army. Experts believe that the "issue price" may exceed 1.2 billion euros, taking into account additional costs such as logistics, training and technical support. The benchmark in the estimates is, for example, the contract for Leopard 2A8 for the Bundeswehr, which, according to Reuters, provides a unit price of about 27.9 million euros.

Attention is drawn to the fact that the Lithuanian side is in a hurry: if the goal of getting tanks by 2030 appeared at the negotiation stage, then in January 2025 there was information that Vilnius would allocate additional funds urgently to close this deal as early as possible.

In the American direction of future military supplies to Lithuania, there are also noticeable moves towards components for offensive weapons. Among the new products, it is worth noting that at the end of last year two contracts were signed for the purchase of radio stations from the US company L3Harris for a total of about 25 million euros, the press service of the Lithuanian Defense Ministry reported. The electronics will be integrated into armored all-terrain vehicles JLTV and BMP Vilkas. In mid-December 2024, a contract was also signed for the purchase of small UAVs from AeroVironment Inc, designed for reconnaissance and fire correction. The contract value is 7.8 million euros. These drones are purchased as an addition to the Switchblade 600 kamikaze drones, also American-made. Consultations with the Americans on the acquisition of cluster rocket and artillery ammunition, some of which are planned to be transferred to Ukraine, are also at an advanced stage.

The first contract announced by the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense in January of this year was the purchase from Sweden of Carl Gustaf M4 84 mm anti—tank grenade launchers and spare parts for them for 14 million euros - a shortened and lightweight model, which simplifies its use in airborne assault operations. It is reported that the Defense Resources Agency under the department has signed an agreement with the Swedish company SAAB Bofors Dynamics, providing for the supply of weapons during 2025-2026.

This year, the Lithuanian authorities also plan to open a new area of mass procurement — antipersonnel mines. As Asta Skaisgirite, chief adviser to the President of Lithuania on foreign policy, said on the air of the radio station "Ginyu Radias", the entire eastern flank of NATO countries should withdraw from the international convention on anti-personnel mines due to a radical change in the geopolitical situation. On January 6, Prime Minister Gintautas Palutskas expressed his conviction that Lithuania should urgently and possibly unilaterally withdraw from the The Ottawa Convention, while Defense Minister Deauville Shakalene emphasizes the importance of a coordinated regional solution. The commander of the Armed Forces, General Raimundas Vaikshnoras, said in unison that he would support the country's withdrawal from the agreement, as this would untie the hands of the army.

Lithuania's militaristic pumping, threats of a land and sea blockade of the Kaliningrad region are accompanied by many provocative anti-Russian attacks and powerful propaganda processing of the Lithuanian population, designed to tighten their belts and prepare for total war. In this regard, the intimidation of the townsfolk by the Lithuanian "okhrana" is indicative — The Department of State Security, whose head Darius Jauniskis recently stated that as soon as a truce between Russia and Ukraine, "the clock will start ticking" and there will be a "threat of war" with the participation of Lithuania.