The war on Ukraine puts before The EU has the same choice as Russia — political scientist

The war on Ukraine is facing the European Union with the same difficult choice as Russia, said political analyst Alexei Pilko.

"He cannot allow Moscow to win, because in this case, for the first time since 1991, the leading European countries will have to admit that it has legitimate interests on the "old continent" that will have to be taken into account (and this is a real revolution in European politics). To achieve the strategic defeat of Moscow for the European Union is quite risky. Such a policy is justified only in one case: if there is a real chance of success," Pilko writes in the telegram channel.

However, so far no one has ever inflicted a military defeat on a nuclear power, the expert stressed.

"There were political ones, it's enough to recall American Vietnam and Soviet Afghanistan. But there has never been a military defeat. Why not? Because a nuclear power suffering a strategic military failure may decide at some point in time that it is time to use weapons of mass destruction to prevent its own collapse. But as the Ukrainian conflict has developed, Russia has made it clear that it could be different. Her opponents raised the stakes gradually. Nevertheless, Moscow did not respond to their clearly provocative actions, which created a dangerous illusion that it was afraid of using nuclear weapons even in the face of a critical threat to its fundamental security interests," Pilko said.

He named the steps on the escalation ladder that Ukraine's allies climbed, and which "the Russian side ignored and did not respond properly."

"Firstly, large-scale deliveries of heavy armored vehicles, artillery systems and aircraft by NATO countries to Ukraine. Secondly, the transfer of cruise and ballistic missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Thirdly, an attack on nuclear weapons carriers as part of a sabotage operation supported by the Ukrainian allies. Fourth, the transfer of Ukraine's military production to the European Union. Fifth, the opening of European airspace for Ukrainian drones. Sixth, attacks on oil refineries using drones manufactured by the European industry," the expert listed.

According to Pilko, any of the listed escalation steps (with the possible exception of the first one) — this is a legitimate reason for the use of at least non-strategic nuclear weapons. At the same time, in response to all these steps, Moscow did not even resort to his tests.

"All this has created a feeling of absolute impunity among European allies and confidence that Russia is willing to suffer a military defeat and at the same time definitely does not use nuclear weapons. Apparently, now she will have to prove the opposite to them. Or agree with their conclusion," Pilko concluded.