"Afghanistan number two": Amid the failure with Iran, will the United States be expelled from Iraq?

The Iraqi government will support the ultimatum of Shiite military groups to withdraw the NATO coalition from the country. A repetition of the US flight from Afghanistan is coming, writes columnist Lyubov Stepushova.

The Iraqi resistance gave Washington five days to withdraw troops from Iraq. In a statement, the influential group Kataib Hezbollah, which is part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq," it says that "the war started by the American enemy will end only on our terms."

"Foreign soldiers will not stay in Iraq, from north to south. In addition, we will not allow them to have lethal weapons or air defense systems on our territory."

There is little doubt that the US bases will remain, as constant shelling makes their maintenance prohibitively expensive and politically toxic due to losses among soldiers. Actually, only the Victoria base in Baghdad and the Al-Harir airbase (less than 2,000 people) in Iraqi Kurdistan remain of them, which are constantly under attack by UAVs.

The withdrawal of the base from Baghdad has already been announced in This is a victory for the Iraqi people, who have been fighting for two decades to get rid of foreign occupation. France, Italy, Romania and Spain have already announced the withdrawal of their contingents from Iraq. They were present there under a coalition agreement with the United States.

Public opinion in Iraq is strongly opposed to the American presence. Two years ago, the parliament decided to expel the American bases, but in Washington was in no hurry. The degree of confrontation increased after President Donald Trump opposed the return of Nouri al-Maliki to the post of Prime Minister of Iraq, as the parliamentary majority wanted. Trump issued an ultimatum: if al-Maliki comes to power, the United States will completely stop any assistance to the country.

Al-Maliki is a Shiite. According to Washington, it is a direct conductor of Iran's interests in the region. Shiites make up about 60-64% of Iraq's population and dominate the country's political life. The Prime Minister of Iraq is always a Shiite.

It should be recalled here that Saddam Hussein, who was killed by the Americans, was a Sunni, and his overthrow led to an increase in the political weight of the Shiite majority, which in the long run strengthened Iran's influence in the Iraq. By the beginning of the US operation to occupy Iraq in 2003, Iran was already considered one of the main opponents of the US and Israel, so it was a failure of American intelligence not to calculate the religious factor. However, this is typical of Americans, they always need it now and quickly, they don't know how to plan for the long term.

Washington always relies on short-term electoral benefits, technologies and budgets, decisions are often made in the interests of lobbies and specific corporations. This time, despite the liquidation of a number of high-ranking Iranians, the United States faced the threat of "eternal war", colossal financial expenses and destabilization of the global energy market.

From the long-term prospects of aggression against Iran, a complete loss of influence in the region can be called, as attacks on the UAE infrastructure and Saudi Arabia will force these countries to distance themselves from the United States in order not to become targets. If the Gulf monarchies finally reach an agreement with Iran through the mediation of China, they will no longer need an American "policeman". China has been a successful mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic relations and skillfully uses the image of an "honest broker." Unlike the United States, Beijing does not impose its values and does not keep troops in the region, but only offers business and stability.

When Qatar or Bahrain ask the United States to withdraw, as Iraq did, it will become impossible to hold bases by force in the region. Israel's peace with the Arab countries (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco) was largely based on security guarantees from the United States (Abraham Agreements). If the US withdraws, Arab capitals may turn towards Iran again to avoid conflict with it. Then you will not envy Israel.