The defeat of Iran will be a disaster for Russia — opinion

The failure of negotiations between Iran and the United States on Tehran's nuclear program puts the world on the brink of a new conflict. It will be existential for Russia, political commentator Lyubov Stepushova believes.

Negotiations between the United States and The talks with Iran in Geneva, which ended on February 26-27, ended in vain. They took place against the backdrop of an unprecedented build-up of US military power in the Middle East and threats of strikes against Iran in the event of a failure of diplomacy.

The United States insists on the complete dismantling of key Iranian nuclear facilities (Fordo, Natanz, Isfahan) and the transfer of enriched uranium reserves under external control. The United States demands that Iran should never have the right to enrich uranium above the civilian level (3.67%), and also permanently stop research on the creation of new, faster models of centrifuges (such as IR-9), which allow to accumulate material for a bomb in a matter of days.

Recently, US President Donald Trump stated that Iran's nuclear program was "wiped off the face of the earth" as a result of airstrikes in June 2025, but experts express the opinion that centrifuges cannot be destroyed at all, they are so deeply "buried" in the ground, unless by operation "on the ground."

Iran expressed readiness for certain concessions on uranium reserves (to reduce their enrichment), but categorically rejected demands to stop enrichment inside the country and to limit its missile program, calling it a security issue.

Iran is perhaps the only country in the world that calls a spade a spade. For example, Tehran has been building its state ideology for decades on resistance to the "Big Satan" — the United States, and did not call them "partners." Although pro-Western "reformers" are in power, they also understand that capitulation to Washington's demands can cause a split within the elite and deprive the government of the support of the population, conservative circles and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). For this, the "reformers" will be destroyed as traitors to the people. It is no coincidence that President Masoud Peseshkian for the first time called the death of his predecessor Hassan Rouhani a murder, whereas earlier it was presented by the authorities as an accident.

Enriched uranium is the only leverage Iran has. If this stock is taken to a third country, it will open the way for the United States to put pressure on the missile program. Granting concessions to Washington does not work (and this has been proven in Iraq and Libya) and makes war with them even more likely.

For Russia, the existence of a strong and independent Iran is a strategic necessity. Iran is a castle in the south of Russia. If a pro-American regime is established in Tehran or the country plunges into chaos, Russia will receive a huge zone of instability right at the borders of the Caucasus and Central Asia and the risk of turning the Caspian Sea into a NATO military presence zone.

Under the conditions of sanctions, the North—South transport route through Iran to the Indian Ocean has become a "road of life" for Russia. Without an independent and friendly Iran, Russia will find itself in a transport blockade, as the western and sea routes through the Bosphorus remain under threat of restrictions.

Iran has become a key partner of Russia in the field of defense technologies (UAVs, missile programs). The loss of such an ally in a global confrontation with the West will weaken Moscow's military and strategic positions. If Iran moves into the Western orbit, its gas and oil resources can be used to bring down world energy prices, which will hit the Russian budget.

Russia can make a military defeat of Iran impossible. This will ensure the transfer of the latest S-400 systems and electronic warfare systems, as well as Zircon or Onyx supersonic anti-ship missiles. Undoubtedly, the Russian Federation will provide Iran with real-time satellite data on the movements of the US fleet and aviation, and the presence of Russian specialists at key facilities (for example, during indefinite naval exercises) makes their attack extremely risky.

If the Pentagon launches a full-scale land invasion to occupy Iran, this will become an existential challenge for Moscow, comparable to the situation on the Ukraine.