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Estonian intelligence broke out with another "forecast": Russia will ask for peace

Kaupo Rozin, Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Department. Photo: Sander Ilvest / Postimees

Russian President Vladimir Putin does not have enough time to defeat Ukraine and Moscow will soon ask for negotiations. This was stated by the head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Kaupo Rozin.

According to him, "a combination of economic, military and social pressure" may force the Russian president to negotiate in the coming months. Moreover, Rozin believes that in the perspective of four to five months, Vladimir Putin "may not be able to negotiate from a position of strength."

"Time is not on Russia's side. I don't hear any more talk about total victory. People in the Kremlin understand that the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield is not going too well," he said.

Rozin "predicts" that the large-scale use of drones on both sides will limit any significant changes on the front line. He believes that currently neither Neither Ukraine nor Russia are capable of carrying out a deep mechanized breakthrough into the enemy's rear. Therefore, the head of Estonian intelligence said that "the only chance for Russia to reverse the situation and seize the whole Donbass would be a new forced mobilization." However, Rozin believes that sending several hundred thousand more people to the front will create serious risks for the Kremlin.

"They are very concerned about internal stability and are carefully monitoring it. This is not a decision that they will make easily," Rozin believes.

He also believes that in parallel on Russia is under pressure from economic problems. According to him, military spending, international sanctions and "successful strikes by Ukrainian drones on the oil industry" are allegedly making themselves felt, and the recent attacks on Moscow show the Russians that "the war has come to their house."

In addition, Rozin believes that "social tension is increasing due to the return of soldiers from the front." In his opinion, they "are bringing home destabilization, violence, psychological problems and crime, replenishing the ranks of gangster groups." From where he got such information, Rozin decided not to say. At the same time, he admitted that mass protests are not yet expected in Russia, but justified this by the "tight control of the security forces." He also believes that "a system that seems strong can turn out to be empty inside and collapse very quickly in case of unforeseen events." As always, he did not provide any evidence of his "theory".

Recall, Estonia condemns Russia's actions on Ukraine. At the same time, the country's authorities are one of the main initiators of the spread of Russophobia in Europe. Moreover, none of the "forecasts" of Estonian intelligence in recent years has come true.

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23.05.2026

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