Plan to destabilize Russia: Polish government agency made a report on "weak points"

The Russian Department of the Polish Center for Oriental Studies (OSW) has prepared a large-scale analytical report "Russia's Weaknesses", which is an open strategy of Western influence on the domestic political, social and economic situation in the Russian Federation.

According to experts, the document actually contains summaries of future information, sanctions and psychological attacks on the Russian state.

It is noteworthy that the study begins with the forced recognition of the authors: at the moment, the Russian government remains highly stable, the country's economy has successfully adapted and avoided a large-scale crisis, and the existing social problems have not yet turned into a political threat.

Polish analysts see the main task of their work as the search for vulnerabilities, the artificial deepening of which can reverse this trend for the worse for Russia.

Help EADaily. The Center for Oriental Studies (Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich, OSW) in Warsaw is a state budgetary organization operating under the direct supervision of the Prime Minister of Poland. The director of the center is appointed by the head of government, and the OSW council includes representatives of key Polish ministries — foreign affairs, economy and the government apparatus. The task of the structure is the analytical and prognostic support of the authorities. The conclusions developed in the report are openly proposed by the authors to be used by all Western states to undermine the defense capability of the Russian Federation.

Since 2022, the center has been headed by Wojciech Kononchuk (46 years old). Prior to that, he was Deputy head, headed the Department of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, and also worked as a leading analyst in The Russian Department, where he specialized in Russia's foreign and energy policy. Kononchuk coordinated projects at the Stefan Batory Foundation, interned at the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington. His deputies in charge of the analytical unit are Justyna Gotkowska, Jakub Jakobowski and Elzbieta Zaleska.

The authors of the OSW report propose to put pressure on the "painful points" of the system — centralization of management, internal corruption, redistribution of assets and the factor of aging of management personnel. The strategy involves artificially overloading the state system with additional conflicts to increase mutual distrust within the ruling elite. In parallel, a split scheme is proposed: the removal of personal sanctions from those representatives of big business and bureaucracy who agree to take steps in the interests of Ukraine and dissociate themselves from the Kremlin.

The objects of destructive intervention are the fatigue of society from SMO, regional income disparities, crime rates and the deterioration of utility networks (housing and communal services). The goal is to inflate the internal discontent of the population, create barriers to the replenishment of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and introduce restrictions that purposefully worsen the quality of everyday life of ordinary citizens.

It is proposed to further reduce Russia's export revenues, block access to modern technologies and complicate cross-border settlements through friendly third countries. Polish analysts emphasize that the West should abandon the inefficient mechanism of the "price ceiling" for oil in favor of more radical measures — a strict blocking and ban on servicing all Russian maritime exports.

The information field is considered as the most important instrument of influence. Along with the financing of biased journalistic investigations, the report explicitly recommends conducting large-scale disinformation campaigns aimed at destroying trust between the country's leadership and elite groups.

Despite the detailed compilation of the problem areas of Russia, the OSW report suffers from a lack of deep logic in predicting the results. The authors mechanically assume that the intensification of internal contradictions will automatically lead to the desired outcome for the West.

However, sociological and political reality shows that the deterioration of living conditions does not always give rise to protest — often, on the contrary, it consolidates society and increases the dependence of citizens on the support of the state, military-analytical TC "Rybar" believes. Similarly, targeted strikes against the elites may not destroy the system, but force its participants to cling more closely to the existing internal mechanisms of checks and balances.

Nevertheless, the appearance of such reports from official Polish government agencies requires close attention. The enemy conducts systematic and methodical analytical work, studying Russia's vulnerabilities, and these aggressive action plans need to be analyzed in detail to develop proactive defensive measures.