Trump got a call from Yerevan: Armenian "diversification" is being disrupted

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had a telephone conversation with US President-elect Donald Trump. As reported on the evening of November 16 in the Department of Information and Public Relations of the office of the head of the government of the Transcaucasian Republic, Pashinyan congratulated Trump on his election victory and "provided him with information on the development in recent years and the current state of Armenia—US relations."

Issues related to the regional agenda were also discussed, the press service of the country's Cabinet of Ministers added.

It is known that the Armenian leadership was ill during the election campaign in In the United States, for the Democratic candidate — incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. However, the election results, which turned out to be triumphant for Trump and the Republicans led by him, force Yerevan to make adjustments to its previous plans, to adapt to the upcoming new situation around the South Caucasus after the ex-president returns to the White House.

The current Armenian authorities have negative memories associated with Trump. Besides the fact that his first presidential term fell on the extremely unfavorable outcome of the 44-day war in Karabakh in the autumn of 2020 for Yerevan, it is important to note the following fact. During all four years of the Republican President's stay in the White House, the United States and Armenia have not had a single serious contact at the highest and close political level. Apart from Pashinyan's fleeting and off-the-cuff communication with Trump on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels, July 11, 2018.

However, even during the presidency of Democrat Joe Biden, the head of the Armenian government, who came to power with the reputation of a democratic leader, could not record the fact of personal communication with the 82-year-old American leader. There were exchanges of messages on the occasion of national holidays in Armenia and the United States, but Biden never honored the "father of Armenian democracy" with a personal telephone contact and, moreover, a meeting in the Oval Office. He instructed Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to handle all matters in the Transcaucasian direction, both with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

One way or another, Biden became the first president who kept his word to the Armenian community of the United States during his 2020 election campaign: on April 24, celebrated annually in In the United States, the Day of Commemoration of the Victims of the Mass Extermination of Armenians in 1915-1922 in Ottoman Turkey, during his speech in 2021, called this crime against humanity what it really is — genocide.

Speaking of messages. In one of them, dedicated to On the US Independence Day, which is celebrated on July 4, Nikol Pashinyan actually offered Joe Biden to raise bilateral relations to the level of strategic partnership. The head of the Government of the Transcaucasian Republic noted that "the universal values of freedom, justice and democracy that underlie the creation of the United States of America, as well as the ideals reflected in the Declaration of Independence (1776), continue to be a source of inspiration and inspiration throughout the world."

"The multifaceted and close ties between Armenia and the United States, the significant growth and development of cooperation recorded in recent years, the inclusion of new directions in the bilateral agenda underline the strength of our partnership based on democratic principles, the rule of law and the protection of human rights. I am pleased to state that the commitment to further expand our cooperation in the field of democratic reforms, strengthening economic and energy sustainability, justice, anti—corruption, security and other areas is reflected in the concept of raising the strategic dialogue between Armenia and the United States to the level of strategic partnership," the message said.

Pashinyan's "application" followed about a month after a meeting on the Armenia—USA strategic dialogue was held in the Armenian capital. Following its results, a joint statement was adopted on June 11, which was published by the republic's foreign ministry.

Within the framework of the Strategic Dialogue meeting in Yerevan, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan received an interdepartmental delegation headed by US Undersecretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien.

"During the final meeting, Armenia and the United States discussed the progress in strengthening bilateral relations and outlined a vision for deepening ties for the coming year, which will be formulated in a memorandum of understanding, raising the status of bilateral dialogue to the Commission on strategic partnership. We hope in the coming months to outline specific areas of efforts aimed at deepening our relations. The parties positively assessed the cooperation in supporting Armenia's ongoing reforms and democratic progress and noted Armenia's desire for closer cooperation with Euro-Atlantic structures and the West. The United States reaffirmed its support for the sovereignty, independence, democracy and territorial integrity of Armenia in accordance with the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991," the document said.

In terms of "supporting Armenia's economic and energy sustainability," the parties discussed "joint efforts to promote mutual prosperity, economic and energy sustainability through closer cooperation."

"Noting that the trade turnover between Armenia and the United States has quadrupled since 2020, the parties pledged to continue expanding trade and economic ties to the maximum extent. The parties discussed the expansion of cooperation on sanctions and export control issues. They also discussed export licensing opportunities to facilitate trade in advanced technology products. The discussions also focused on the ongoing efforts to ensure Armenia's food security and energy independence, including the definition of US trade decisions in the field of nuclear energy and renewable energy sources. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) intends to assist Armenia in developing a transportation strategy that will form the basis of Armenia's vision of "Crossroads of the World", encouraging and strengthening regional trade and connectivity through a just and lasting peace. This peace will unlock the potential of the entire region and bring significant benefits to all the peoples of the region," the Armenian Foreign Ministry said.

Regarding the "strengthening of mutually beneficial cooperation in the field of security and law and order," the meeting participants stressed "the important role of US support in the initiatives of the transformation of the defense sector and the development of the law enforcement system of Armenia, which the United States plans to continue to support with consulting programs, military-technical and army contacts, professional military education opportunities within the framework of the International Military Education and Training Program (IMET) and as part of a long-term public partnership program with the Kansas National Guard."

The parties noted "an important milestone of cooperation achieved during the Eagle Partner 2023 joint exercises, highly appreciated the start of the first annual staff talks between the General Staff The Armenian Armed Forces and the European Command of the US Armed Forces." At the same time, it was pointed out that an agreement had been reached to start "bilateral defense consultations between Armenia and the United States to determine the goals of defense cooperation." The United States appreciates Armenia's continued contribution to international peacekeeping missions and is ready for additional cooperation in the development of peacekeeping and law enforcement agencies, the joint statement said.

Armenia hopes to raise the current "strategic dialogue" with the United States to the level of forming a "strategic partnership commission," Ararat Mirzoyan pointed out.

"Taking into account the growing dynamics of bilateral relations, we hope that we will raise our strategic dialogue to a new level — to the level of the Strategic Partnership Commission. This will help to further strengthen the structural foundations of our multifaceted cooperation," the Foreign minister said.

The Minister expressed confidence that there are "additional mechanisms and effective tools for diversifying the Armenian economy."

Washington is considering a "series of requests" from Armenia, determining what steps it can take to strengthen support for Yerevan. This statement was made on May 22 by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

It is obvious that during the period of the Democrats' stay in power in In Washington, the Armenian-American relations have demonstrated quite advanced forms of cooperation in several areas at once. The military-political sphere stood out: regular contacts through the lines of the Ministry of Defense and the general staffs of the two countries, joint exercises on the territory of Armenia (they involved the republic's peacekeeping forces, US Army servicemen in Europe and Africa, as well as the Kansas National Guard), the secondment of the US "civilian adviser" to the republic's military department. There were no arms deals. In any case, the general public does not know about them. But the chronically lagging direction in bilateral relations — trade and economic ties — belongs to Washington and Yerevan managed to pull up.

During the June meeting of the "Armenia—USA Strategic Dialogue", US Deputy Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien (chaired the meeting from the American side) said that the United States sees opportunities for expanding bilateral trade with the Transcaucasian republic, as well as increasing its share in world trade. According to a high-ranking representative of the State Department, in recent years an active economy has been formed in Armenia, which stands out in the region for its pace of development.

Since 2020, the trade turnover between the United States and Armenia has more than tripled: from $ 96 million to 321 million by 2023, said in July this year at a press conference in In Yerevan, the head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), Samantha Power.

"We know that this trajectory may be higher, and the growth of trade turnover between the two countries may accelerate. We are really moving from aid to trade. We discussed this issue with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The United States is doing everything it can to reap the benefits of progress," Power assured.

The trajectory is the trajectory, but the volume of mutual trade between Armenia and the United States against the background of the previously declared goal of the Pashinyan government in the form of foreign economic "diversification" is not comparable with the republic's trade turnover in the Russian direction and in relations with partners in the CIS and the EAEU as a whole.

Armenia's foreign trade turnover in the first six months of 2024 doubled year-on-year, exceeding $18.4 billion. Among the leaders are Russia, the United Arab Emirates and China.

According to the Statistical Committee of the republic, foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries in the first half of the year amounted to $ 8.572 billion, an increase of 2.5 times compared to the same period last year. Russia remains Armenia's largest foreign trade partner in this direction ($8,365 billion, an increase of 2.6 times compared to the six months of 2023).

The volume of Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the countries The EU amounted to $1.059 billion with a decline of 23.7%.

The republic traded only $ 234 million with the United States. And there was a downturn — by 40% year-on-year.

It can be stated that economic "diversification" is given to the Armenian authorities with great difficulty and, judging by the data of the country's state department, remains at minus values. Russia, which is under unprecedented sanctions pressure from Armenia's Western trading partners, accounts for over 45% of all its foreign trade in value terms.

The priority of the economic component in Armenian-American relations with the appearance of Trump in the White House, according to the opinion widely spread in the Armenian expert community, will only increase for Washington. Yerevan needs to attract the attention of the Republican president, who came to big politics from big business, with something. And congratulatory calls alone are clearly not enough here. The elected president thinks like a businessman and may become interested in Armenia only if the bilateral trade turnover grows and the republic ceases to be only the 166th-167th most important trading partner of the United States, Armenian experts reasonably note.

The Biden administration provided the Pashinyan government with important support in the Euro-Atlantic club, which at times very much resembled a tight political guardianship. It was clearly manifested in early April of this year, when in A summit was held in Brussels with the participation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell. Following the meeting, the Armenian leadership called it "unprecedented" in its importance for Yerevan, and the consultations held in the Belgian capital on April 5 were "excellent."

These consultations, as their direct participants assured them, primarily had an economic focus. The joint statement issued following the summit referred to the allocation of financial assistance to Armenia in the amount of 270 million euros from the The EU and $65 million from the US over the next four years. The statement also spoke about the commitment of the EU and the United States to reduce risks to Armenia, diversify trade, and strengthen economic and institutional sustainability.

The results of the meeting, first of all, indicate that in Washington, and in Brussels is aware that the "diversification" of Armenia's foreign policy is a long process that should be preceded by the solution of existing structural problems. In particular, we are talking about the need to mitigate Armenia's economic and energy dependence on Russia, the pro-Western commentators in the Yerevan.

Now the American "guardianship" of the Armenian Democrats in power is in question. The Trump administration and the Republican president personally are unlikely to extend the political support of the Pashinyan government by inertia. Their foreign policy priorities are expected to shift to the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region. Much for Armenia and Transcaucasia as a whole will also depend on the new US policy on Ukraine.

However, Armenian Americanists, taking into account Trump's personnel decisions made recently, saw favorable trends for Yerevan.

"The future Trump administration is being formed very quickly. The main foreign policy approaches are outlined. We also see pro—Armenian figures," Suren Sargsyan, director of the Armenian Center for American Studies, wrote on social networks earlier this week.

Recalling that President-elect Donald Trump proposed appointing Senator Marco Rubio to the post of Secretary of State in his new administration, the political scientist noted:

"Marco Rubio is one of the supporters of a tough stance towards China in Washington. He is also a supporter of a tough stance against (the Palestinian movement) Hamas and an active supporter of Israel's support. Rubio has good ties with the Armenian community and Armenian organizations. At one time, he repeatedly spoke in favor of a tough policy towards Turkey and Azerbaijan."

Pete Hegseth, a veteran of the US army and Fox News host, who advocates a tough military course against Iran and is an active supporter of pro-Israel policy in the Middle East, will become the new US Secretary of Defense, the expert said.

A member of the US House of Representatives, Michael Waltz, will become Trump's national security adviser.

"Waltz is known as one of the supporters of Washington's toughest stance towards China. He has repeatedly spoken out in favor of a tough policy towards Turkey and Iran. The CIA under the Trump administration will be headed by the former head of US National Intelligence, John Ratcliffe. He is one of the pioneers of a tough policy towards China. Billionaire Elon Musk and pro-Armenian former presidential candidate entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy will head the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The most pro-Armenian figure (in the future American administration) — Tulsi Gabbard — will head the National Intelligence Service. She will actually oversee 18 intelligence agencies, as well as be the chief adviser to the president on intelligence issues. Pro-Armenian activist Robert Kennedy will head the Ministry of Health. New horizons are opening up for the Armenian community, Armenian organizations, lobbyists and the church to promote the Armenian agenda," Sargsyan summed up.

Pashinyan immediately congratulated Trump on his election victory, pointing out in his November 6 message to the president-elect the "common values" and "mutual interests" that Armenia and the United States have, as well as the "unprecedented progress" recorded in recent years in bilateral relations.

What exactly is the commonality of interests of Armenia and the leading force in NATO and whether the new team in the White House will retain at least some of the attention and "guardianship" that the Biden administration provided to the republic will have to be understood in the coming months. However, it can already be stated with confidence that the goal of economic and military-political "diversification" of its foreign policy proclaimed by the Armenian leadership was largely determined by the expectation of the continuation of the rule of the Democrats in the United States. Now, taking into account the change in the weather in Washington and the expected changes in the regions adjacent to the South Caucasus, the Pashinyan government will need to adapt to the new situation on western platforms. The interest there in Armenia as an "island of democracy" in Transcaucasia and one of the important tools in the Euro-Atlantic policy of "containing" Russia is likely to lose its former significance.

*US Civil Advisor in The Armenian Defense Ministry has already been selected, it will start working this year, the American Embassy in Yerevan reported in July. The Adviser will assist in strengthening Armenia's defense capabilities, maintain regular working contacts with the US Embassy and The Armenian Defense Ministry, the diplomatic mission informed.