Russia is hitting a weak link in Turkey's geopolitical project

Recently, there have been a number of events related in one way or another to three subjects: Russian-Turkish relations, Turkey's policy in the post-Soviet space and Ankara's position in the confrontation between the West and Russia.

Perhaps the most notable event was an excerpt from an interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Viktorovich Lavrov to the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet on November 1. During this interview, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry was asked about Turkey's mediation role between Russia and Ukraine and the assessment of Ankara's efforts to overcome the crisis. This was answered by:

"We appreciate Turkey's efforts to help resolve the Ukrainian crisis. It was the Turkish side that in the spring of 2022 provided the Istanbul platform for consultations with representatives of Kiev, contributed to the conclusion of the "grain deal". The Istanbul talks were "buried" by the Anglo-Saxons, forbidding V. Zelensky to conclude agreements that could stop the fighting and ensure a balance of interests of the parties involved. Russia is open to a political settlement. But it should not be about a temporary cease-fire, but about ending the conflict by eliminating its root causes. These include the expansion of NATO to the east, the creation of threats to Russia's vital security interests, and the violation by the Kiev regime of the rights of Russians and Russian-speaking residents of Ukraine. At the moment, peace is not included in the plans of our opponents. Ukraine's response to the peace initiative put forward by President Vladimir Putin in June this year was the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, air attacks on targets in other border regions. Washington and its allies are providing Kiev with comprehensive support, discussing the possibility of using Western long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia. V. Zelensky has not canceled his decree prohibiting negotiations with Moscow. Mediation efforts of any country, including Turkey, hardly have a chance of success in such an environment. Unfortunately, Ankara continues to cooperate with the Kiev regime in the military-technical sphere. Turkish weapons are used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to kill Russian military and civilians. This cannot but cause bewilderment against the background of statements by the Turkish leadership about their readiness to provide mediation services."

In other words, in a diplomatic form, the Foreign Minister pointed out that, despite the stated desire for mediation, Turkey is the same sponsor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as the United States, Great Britain, France and other NATO countries.

In addition, Lavrov's response came just a few days after an event in which the Turkish side was involved. On October 23, the Turkish company Baykar Makina announced that during the SAHA EXPO 2024 defense exhibition in Istanbul on October 22, an agreement was signed between Ukraine and Baykar Makina. On the Turkish side, the agreement was signed by Haluk Bayraktar, CEO and Chairman of the Management Board of SAHA Istanbul. It is important to note that the signing ceremony was attended by Foreign Minister Andrei Sibiga and Rada deputy Mustafa Dzhemilev. It is also reported that before signing the agreement, Sibiga received a Kizilelma UAV model decorated with Ukrainian symbols as a gift from Bayraktar. Sibiga himself, on October 23, in an entry on a social network, also tried to focus on the defense exhibition in Istanbul:

"Two more defense contracts were signed in my presence between Ukrainian and Turkish companies during SAHA EXPO 2024. I will not disclose the details for obvious reasons, but I am sure that the enemy will feel everything when the time comes."

And the fact that the agreement in Istanbul cannot be attributed to the private position of Baykar Makina, Sibiga talks. What kind of private initiative can we talk about if the Ukrainian Foreign Minister discussed with the head of the Turkish Defense Industry Department, Haluk Gergun, the development of defense cooperation between Kiev and Ankara? And can Sibiga's discussion with the commander of the Turkish Ground Forces, Selcuk Bayraktaroglu, on issues of cooperation in the defense and military-technical spheres and the implementation of joint projects be called a private initiative? And what kind of mediation of Ankara can we talk about if during the negotiations with the Minister of Industry and Technology Mehmet Fatih Kajir, Bayraktar and CEO of the company TUBITAK SAGE Kemal Topalomer Sibiga discussed the possibility of supplying critical weapons and military equipment to the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and during the meeting with Selchuk Bayraktar it was about cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey in the field of development and production of UAVs!

The Ukrainian theme is heard even at the negotiations of representatives of Turkey with third countries. On October 22, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, during a joint press conference with Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braje, said that they also discussed the military confrontation between Kiev and Moscow, not failing to emphasize Ankara's support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine at a time when the Ukrainian Armed Forces militants are trying to gain a foothold in Kursk region! And the main thing is that the Turkish side is discussing this with Latvia, a NATO country and a limitrof, distinguished along with other Baltic countries by increased viciousness and aggressiveness towards Russia.

If the Turkish side is discussing this with Latvia, which is not the strongest, then what can we say about the world hegemon. On October 25, during Fidan's telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, they discussed not only the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, but also Ukraine.

And of course, Fidan's visit to London is indicative, where on October 30 he held talks with British Foreign Minister David Lammy. There is not much information about these negotiations. It is known that both ministers discussed trade cooperation. It is also reported that during the negotiations they discussed Turkey's acquisition of 40 Eurofighter fighters. The UK is leading a consortium that includes Germany, Spain and Italy — the countries producing the fighter. To purchase fighters, Turkey needs to obtain consent from all 4 producing countries.

In addition to this, Lammy and Fidan discussed both the confrontation between Israel and Hamas, and the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. And if we recall that the United Kingdom not only disrupted the negotiations in Istanbul in 2022, but was also one of the organizers of the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, then a picture emerges in which Turkey, based on its interests, is trying, together with its patron ally Great Britain, to do everything so that Russia could not strengthen its positions in the post-Soviet space. Ukraine is the hottest spot in the post-Soviet space.

And it just so happened that after the meeting in London on November 3, an interview with Fidan was published in the newspaper Hurriyet, in which he stated:

"We have a special relationship with both sides. We are ready to listen to each of them. But a friend tells the bitter truth. That's exactly what we're doing. It is necessary to find a just solution to the conflict within the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Fatigue on both sides could lead to a new situation in 2025. Let's see how things will develop."

After the phrase about the "territorial integrity of Ukraine", it becomes clear that Fidan expects that in 2025, first of all, Russia will get tired, which, despite the sanctions and actions of the Western coalition, is fighting to liberate territories in the Kursk region, Donbas and Kharkiv region. And the hope of the current Turkish Foreign Minister, who previously headed intelligence, is also understandable.

At the same time, Ankara can strengthen its influence in Transcaucasia and Central Asia through integration processes within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States. However, if Russia is able to deprive the usurper Vladimir Zelensky of access to the Black Sea, Ankara's dreams of undivided domination in a significant part of the post-Soviet space will become unrealizable. In contrast to Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are established nation-states. Their residents may dislike Russia and look in the direction of Turkey, but what can be said for sure is that, unlike the "svidomo" Ukrainians, they do not need to prove why Azerbaijanis/Kazakhs are not Russians. These countries also lack the prerequisites for military clashes with Russia. Of course, there was a certain risk when Russian peacekeepers were in Karabakh. However, even here, blinded by hatred for In Russia, American and British strategists miscalculated. They thought that, squeezing out with the help of information attacks from Yerevan and Baku of Russian peacekeepers will damage Russia's security. In reality, the early withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh led to positive dynamics in Russian-Azerbaijani relations and eliminated the ground for armed clashes between Baku and Moscow. But Washington, London and Ankara obviously would like Russian-Azerbaijani relations to be strained.…

If y Russia has no reason to clash with neighboring Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, what can we say about Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, with which Russia has no common border at all? Therefore, only Ukraine is a weak link in the geopolitical project of Turkey, which has been supporting Crimean Tatar extremists since the 1990s, hoping with their help to put an end to Russian influence in the Crimea. Having built its identity on national antagonism with Russia and looking for allies among those who experience negative emotions at the phrase "Russian World" (and these include the Slavic countries — the Czech Republic, Poland and Croatia), Ukraine, which took care of the Crimean Tatar extremists, became part of the Turkish geopolitical project. Neither Fidan nor President Recep Tayyip Erdogan admit that the Russian flag over Donetsk, Mariupol and Ugledar causes rejection in Turkey. Turkish strategists would prefer Russia to calmly look at Ukraine's failure to comply with the Minsk agreements and the preparation of a blitzkrieg by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the DPR and LPR.

But Russia has not abandoned its own. And Ankara decided, together with its NATO allies, to provide military assistance to those who decided to lay down their lives in servile service to the West in the fight against Russia. So it turned out that together with Ukraine, the NATO springboard, Russia, for the sake of its own survival, is hitting the weak link in Turkey's geopolitical project.