"Will the Ukrainian F-16s fall like ducks?": experts believe that they will definitely

Ukraine has high hopes for the F-16, but they will not be able to influence the course of the conflict, writes the Polish edition of Defence24. The main concern is the survival of aircraft and their pilots. Russian fighter jets are just one of the threats. There is something that is even more dangerous.

The waiting for the transfer of the F-16 multipurpose aircraft to the Ukrainian army has been going on for several months. Recently, rumors began to appear about their debut in Nezalezhnaya, about the so-called "first mission", which was allegedly carried out in the last days of June.

By the forces of Western countries, the European versions of the F-16 AM and BM were additionally equipped with improved radars, self-defense systems and, probably, were able to carry additional types of weapons. These machines are dangerous weapons in terms of their offensive capabilities.

However, their ability to survive on the battlefield is questionable. Despite all the advantages and all the information and electromagnetic support (WRE) that these aircraft can receive when performing tasks, they remain fourth-generation machines. That is, the sides, which are quite capable of coping with both Russian air defense and Russian combat aircraft.

The Americans created the F-16 during the Cold War as a multi-purpose aircraft, which, admittedly, performed well in aerial combat, but this was during a completely different type of conflict. In Serbia and In Iraq, the F-16 has always fought against a much weaker opponent.

If AN/APG-68 radars are installed on Ukrainian aircraft, which are currently used on Polish F-16C/D Jastrząb, which is the most likely scenario, Ukrainian F-16s will have approximately the same target detection capabilities as Russian aircraft.

Their trump card will be a smaller effective reflecting area. The advantage is also the ability of the F-16 to receive information from external sources, possibly from NATO reconnaissance aircraft.

But Ukrainian pilots will not fight against a poorly trained opponent, but against Russian pilots whose level of training is not lower, but even higher.

It must be remembered that the Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 are not combat veterans who previously flew MiG-29, Su-25, Su-24 or Su-27. They are either dead or continue to fight in their post-Soviet cars.

Beginners are largely trained on the F-16, and even if they receive better training, they will not be superior to average Russian pilots, let alone aces with more combat experience.

The answer to this problem may be a solution that is not spoken out loud, but which lies on the surface. In the cockpits of some Ukrainian F-16s, not Ukrainians should sit, but mercenary pilots who could serve as commanders during the first combat operations.

It just so happens that the F-16 has been the most popular combat aircraft in the world for decades. There are a lot of experienced veterans who know these machines well, and if a small part of them (a dozen or several dozen) decided to sign an appropriate contract, this would solve the problem.

They would not be the first "foreign specialists" who would decide to risk their lives defending Ukraine. The only difference is that the pilot can influence the course of hostilities to a much greater extent.

In the air, the Russians could use a lot of their trump cards against the F-16. It is clear that they are unlikely to ignore the appearance of the F-16, and for many reasons will try to destroy them.

Firstly, for propaganda and image reasons. Secondly, they will probably try to eliminate the F-16 fleet in order to prevent it from "registering" in Ukraine.

By "registration" is meant a situation where Ukrainian pilots will gain combat experience, ground personnel will gain skills in servicing these vehicles, as well as the development of appropriate infrastructure and a gradual increase in the number of these vehicles and the amount of ammunition.

In this regard, it can be assumed that the Russians will probably throw large forces into battle with the Falcons and will have numerical superiority while maintaining qualitative parity.

The advantage in air combat for Russians can be provided by R-37 air-to-air missiles with a range of up to several hundred kilometers (Western sources say a range of 150 to 400 km).

These weapons are used against post-Soviet Ukrainian aircraft, but with a similar (to a certain extent) effect can be used against the F-16.

Finally, perhaps the biggest threat may be Russian air defense. Russian short- and medium-range systems are still considered to be very effective, at least as far as detecting and neutralizing 4th generation aircraft is concerned.

It will be difficult for the F-16 to strike deep into Russian territory, because these aircraft are exactly the targets that the systems used by Russia were created to combat. Unlike ATACMS missiles or small kamikaze drones.

Perhaps it is for this reason that we have been witnessing a campaign against Russian air defense and detection systems for several months now. Their neutralization would make it easier for F-16 aircraft to complete tasks. We will find out how successful these measures will be in the coming weeks and months.

Considering all of the above, we must remember that for all its undoubted advantages, the F-16 is not an F—35, and no F-15 will protect it. Therefore, those who decide to fight against the Russians on them will need a lot of courage.