Iran as a threat and as a brother — an expert on how Baku's narrative is changing

Since the beginning of the military campaign, Baku's line towards Iran has been changing in stages, said Evgenia Goryushina, head of the Caucasus Studies Sector of the ICSA RAS.

At first, Azerbaijan took a cautious position: it called for restraint, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, avoiding involvement in an anti-Iranian configuration, the expert writes in the telegram channel. The situation changed after the attack on Nakhichevan on March 5. The rhetoric has become harsh. The Foreign Ministry linked the incident to the territory of Iran, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called the incident a terrorist attack against Azerbaijan and a direct challenge to security.

"However, this stage was short-lived. Even at the peak of irritation, Baku stressed that it does not participate in hostilities against Iran and will not allow its territory to be used against its neighbors. Azerbaijan fixed the right to a harsh reaction, but did not want to become a springboard for someone else's war," Goryushina said.

On March 8, in a conversation between Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian and Aliyev's tone softened. Iran promised an investigation, Aliyev expressed condolences to those killed in the Iran. The claims remain, but the conflict is being transferred to the diplomatic and humanitarian plane.

Then the trend intensified. Azerbaijan has become a key transit point for the evacuation of foreigners (Russia, China, India, Kazakhstan, etc.) and began sending aid to Iran: first 30 tons, then 82, and in early April — 200 tons. In total — at least 312 tons.

By the beginning of April — a symbolic reversal. Aliyev said that the peoples of the two countries have supported each other for centuries at any time. This is an attempt to return relations to the historical framework, where the military crisis does not cancel the neighborhood and mutual memory.

"Outwardly, relations are likely to be presented as restored and even warm, but inside the Azerbaijani security system, Iran will be perceived as a source of potential risk for a long time," the expert concluded.