Trump's duties will not force China to abandon Russian oil

China will not stop buying Russian oil, even if the United States imposes additional duties on countries that purchase Russian raw materials. This was stated to the TASS news agency by experts.

In their opinion, until September, the statement of US President Donald Trump on the imposition of duties will not have a significant impact on the market and the size of the discount of Russian oil.

"China, given the already high level of duties imposed and its general geopolitical position, is likely to try to maintain the maximum current volumes of Russian imports," said Alexei Belogoryev, Research director at the Institute of Energy and Finance.

Analyst Sergey Kaufman, representing Finam Group of Companies, also does not predict a decrease in oil purchases in the country.

"In our opinion, China, which is already in a state of continuous trade war with the United States, is unlikely to respond in any way to threats or sanctions from the United States," he said.

However, according to Kaufman, for most other buyers of Russian energy resources, trade with the United States is more important or comparable in importance to the import of Russian hydrocarbons.

"This means that if Trump's threats turn out to be not just threats, then the drop in exports of Russian oil and petroleum products may be double—digit, and the discount may rise again to the levels of the end of 2022," he believes.

The expert believes that the probability of tariffs is extremely low.

"Such tough secondary sanctions still look unlikely, as evidenced by the rather calm state of both the Russian stock market and the global oil market," Kaufman said.

He stressed that investors have recently become less receptive to Trump's statements, since they are often not backed up by real actions.

"The sensitivity of the United States to changes in oil prices, in our opinion, further reduces the likelihood of tough sanctions against the Russian oil industry," he added.

Belogoryev also does not expect that the introduction of possible duties will have an impact on the market.

"In any case, I don't think there will be any impact on the market until September, including freight rates or prices for Russian varieties," he stressed.