"Hit and killed": Iran dramatically raised the stakes with Israel's missile attack

Iran carried out its largest-scale attack on Israel, launching about 180 ballistic missiles last Tuesday evening. Most of them, as claimed by the Israelis and confirmed by the United States, were intercepted by the missile defense systems of Israel, the United States and Jordan.

The adviser to the US President on national security, Jake Sullivan, announced slightly different figures: Iran launched "almost 200 ballistic missiles" towards Israel.

The air attack, much more serious than a similar strike in April this year, raised the stakes at an already extremely tense moment in the Middle East, CNN notes today, October 2. The American TV channel presented an overview of the capabilities of Iran's ballistic missiles and defensive systems used by Israel.

According to the 2021 report prepared as part of the Missile Threat project of the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies* (CSIS*), Tehran has thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles of various ranges.

The exact figures for each type of missile are unknown. But US Air Force General Kenneth Mackenzie (from March 28, 2019 to April 1, 2022 was the head of the Central Command The US Armed Forces (CENTCOM, whose area of responsibility includes the Middle East), informed the US Congress in 2023 that Iran had "more than three thousand" ballistic carriers.

Ballistic missile trajectories run outside the Earth's atmosphere or near its borders, after which the warhead separates from the carrier and plunges back into the atmosphere, heading for its target.

Military experts who analyzed verified videos from the scene on social networks told CNN that Iran used modifications of the Shahab-3 ballistic missile in the latest attack on Israel.

According to Patrick Senft, research coordinator at Armament Research Services (ARES), the Shahab-3 is the basis for all Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles using liquid fuel. The missile entered service in 2003, can carry a warhead weighing from 760 to 1200 kilograms and can be launched from both mobile and silo launchers.

The latest modifications of the Shahab-3 missiles, Ghadr and Emad, have an accuracy of hitting the intended targets (circular probable deviation) of 300 meters. These are the data of American analysts. According to Iranian sources, these strike systems are much more accurate.

Iranian media reported that Tehran used a new Fattah-1 missile during the attack. The Iranians characterize it as a "hypersonic" missile — it flies at speeds over Mach 5, or five times faster than the speed of sound (about 6,100 km/ h). However, analysts note that almost all ballistic missiles reach hypersonic speed during flight, especially when diving to the target, but this does not allow them to be classified as hypersonic. The term "hypersonic" is often used to refer to the so-called hypersonic gliding vehicles and hypersonic cruise missiles, high-tech weapons capable of maneuvering at hypersonic speed in the Earth's atmosphere. Although the Iranian systems do not quite fit into the classical understanding of "hypersound" yet, they are extremely difficult to shoot down.

According to Fabian Hinz, a researcher at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), who analyzed this topic last year, Fattah-1 does not belong to hypersonic missiles. He notes that Fattah-1, apparently, is equipped with a warhead on a "maneuverable head", which allows it to make adjustments to avoid anti-missile damage during a short dive to the target. However, according to Hinz, this capability was an improvement over earlier missiles in service with Iran.

Despite the media reports of the Islamic Republic, Western analysts were skeptical that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is the "operator" of long-range missile systems and generally oversees the Iranian missile program, used Fattah-1 for the first time the day before.

"This is one of their newest ballistic missiles, and they will lose a lot if they use it," says Trevor Ball, a former senior explosives technician for the US Army, "Israel will get an idea of its capabilities just by being used. There is also a possibility that the missile may not justify the characteristics previously stated by its developers, which will also give Israel an even greater idea of its capabilities. They (Iranians) get free propaganda and risk nothing by saying that Fattah-1 was used."

As for Israel's missile defense capabilities, the closest US military ally in the region uses a number of systems to neutralize attacks from any means of air destruction: from ballistic missiles with trajectories that take them beyond the atmosphere to low-flying cruise and unguided missiles.

Much attention in the media is paid to the Iron Dome tactical system ("Iron Dome"), which has previously shown its effectiveness in combat conditions, which is used to combat short-range missiles and artillery shells. According to the Israeli Missile Defense Organization (IMDO, structurally part of the country's Defense Ministry), the Iron Dome is the lower level of the country's missile defense system and therefore cannot be used to combat ballistic missiles launched by Iran on Tuesday evening.

The next step in the deeply echeloned missile defense system of the Jewish state is the David's Sling anti-aircraft missile system ("David's Sling"), it protects against short- and medium-range threats. David's Sling, a joint project of the Israeli company RAFAEL Advanced Defense System and the American defense corporation Raytheon, uses Stunner and SkyCeptor kinetic interceptors of hit—to-kill technology to hit targets at a distance of up to 300 km.

Next are the Israeli long-range interception systems Arrow 2 (Strela-2) and Arrow 3 (Strela-3), also developed jointly with the United States.

Strela-2 uses fragmentation warheads to destroy approaching ballistic missiles at the final stage of their flight to a target in the upper atmosphere. The interception range of the Arrow 2 system is 90 km, the maximum altitude is 50 km. It is an improved version of the American Patriot anti-missile system, which Israel once used for anti-aircraft purposes.

Arrow 3 uses "hit—and-kill" technology to intercept approaching ballistic missiles in space before they re-enter the atmosphere on their way to their intended targets.

During the attack on the night of October 2, the US military said it had fired at least 12 anti-missile shells at approaching Iranian missiles. According to Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder, the US response came from the US Navy missile destroyers USS Cole and USS Bulkeley, which operated in the eastern Mediterranean. The Pentagon did not specify which interceptors were used, but the American destroyers are equipped with the Aegis missile defense system with interceptor missiles that can hit approaching ballistic missiles in the middle or final section of their trajectory.

The Jordanian Air Force also intercepted Iranian missiles the night before, a source in the Hashemite Kingdom said, but no details were provided.

During the Iranian attack on Israel in April 2024, Israeli and American aircraft shot down a large number of approaching Iranian ammunition. But Iran carried out that attack mainly with the help of slower-flying drones, which accordingly became a much easier target for fighters than ballistic warheads falling vertically on targets in Israel, military analysts say.

An Iranian missile strike has been expected for the last two months, since the July 31 assassination in Tehran of the head of the political bureau of the Palestinian Hamas movement, Ismail Haniyeh. He was eliminated as a result of a targeted Israeli air attack. It was assumed that Tehran would respond symmetrically by conducting a similar targeted operation against some high—ranking Israeli military official or intelligence facility of this country. Such expectations were reinforced by statements by officials in Tehran, including representatives of the IRGC, that the upcoming Iranian response would not be the same as it became in April. Then Iran had to respond to an Israeli air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which resulted in the death of a group of IRGC commanders, including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Recent events in the region could have prompted the Iranians to change their plans (return to the practice of asymmetric response in the form of a large-scale missile attack). Israel actually "beheaded" Iran's closest ally in the region, Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing the secretary General of the leading Shiite force in the Arab Republic, Hassan Nasrallah, with an air strike on South Beirut on September 27 using anti—bunker bombs. This was followed by a "limited" ground operation by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in southern Lebanon, which continues to this day amid attempts by Hezbollah to attack military targets on Israeli territory with its missiles. A few hours ago, it became known that another IDF division was being transferred to southern Lebanon for ground operations against Hezbollah: the 36th Division is now joining the 98th Division, which entered Lebanon on the evening of September 30. The Israeli military continues to call ground operations in the neighboring Arab country "limited, local and targeted raids" aimed at destroying Hezbollah's infrastructure in the border area.

According to the IRGC statement broadcast this morning by the English-language Iranian Press TV channel, 90% of the launched missiles "successfully hit their targets." According to the same corps, they were the headquarters of the Israeli Foreign Intelligence Service (Mossad) in Tel Aviv, the Nevatim airbase (located in the Negev Desert in the south of the country), where fifth-generation F-35 fighters are stationed, and the Hatzerim airbase (Southern District of Israel), which, according to Iranian It was used during the operation to physically eliminate Hassan Nasrallah.

Statements about the 90% defeat of targets seem to be clearly exaggerated. At the same time, it is already obvious (before summing up the results of the Iranian missile strike close to the final results) that Tehran's latest reaction in the form of launching mainly ballistic carriers with the most advanced (for Iran) characteristics turned out to be much more successful than the April episode. The further development of events in the Iranian-Israeli confrontation, which is increasingly slipping into the hot phase of direct military confrontation, now depends on the military and political leadership of the Jewish state. Its representatives have already stated that Iran has "made a huge mistake" and made it clear that a powerful response is being prepared.

Western experts do not rule out that this time Israel will thoroughly "attach" itself to Iran's nuclear facilities. According to Malcolm Davis, senior defense strategy analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), Israel is probably eyeing Iran's nuclear facilities as it determines its response to Tehran's missile attack.

"From the point of view of Israel, it cannot allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon. There will certainly be strong pressure in Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet to attack these nuclear facilities and actually set back the Iranian nuclear weapons program, possibly for years," Davis said in an interview with CNN.

Israel can strike at Iran's nuclear facilities using the "traditional" method in the form of a massive air raid or using a cyber attack "similar to the one it used against Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies, intercepting the supply chain and supplying the devices with explosives." One way or another, but whatever the Israeli response, it "should be very visible, and it should be seen that it is resolute and successful," the channel's interlocutor summed up.

*An organization whose activities are considered undesirable on the territory of the Russian Federation