The unrest could help Macron retain power and become president for the third time

As a result of the ongoing unrest, France is threatened with a coup d'etat. President Emmanuel Macron, whose powers expire next year, may apply special powers and rule for the third presidential term in a row, warns the author of an article in the British The Spectator, John Kiger.

May 1958. After 12 years, the Fourth French Republic became completely ungovernable: the average life of the government barely reached seven months. Four years of war in Algeria, whose intensity was steadily increasing, ended with a military mutiny on May 13. The military demanded a strong hand.

General de Gaulle— the hero of the Resistance, the savior of France in 1944 and the candidate on whom the military commanders agreed, came back on the scene. Taking advantage of the rebellion, he demanded the post of prime minister, the temporary right to direct administration and six months to prepare a new constitution, which will be submitted to a national referendum instead of voting in parliament. President Rene Coty gave the go-ahead. On June 1, de Gaulle became the last Prime Minister of the Fourth Republic, and six months later — the first president of the Fifth. The new political system deliberately strengthened the executive power, replacing the shaky parliamentary power with a strong presidential one — based on direct legitimacy from the hands of the people.

Could large-scale internal unrest, a severe financial crisis, or a combination of both factors in the run-up to the presidential elections of 2027 lead Emmanuel Macron to take advantage of this historical precedent?

During the protests that have engulfed the whole country, 2,400 rioters have already been detained, a thousand policemen have been injured, and more than half a million demonstrators have taken to the streets. Insurance payments for damage from robberies and pogroms exceeded one billion euros — already more than after the riots of 2023 (730 million euros). In a televised address, Macron, visibly nervous, expressed "anger and shame." The next day, his prime minister did not rule out a state of emergency. The Fifth Republic is threatened even more than in 1968, when the consequences of the unrest at least mitigated economic growth and financial stability.

Can riots, political paralysis, financial pressure and the rhetoric of national salvation justify the use of emergency powers under article 16 of the Constitution, the creation of a Sixth Republic and Macron's third presidential term in a row — impossible under the current constitutional framework?

Behind the political stupor and the deplorable state of the state treasury — Macron himself had a hand in both — there is an even deeper malaise: a sense of imminent national decline amid rising taxes and a drop in the quality of public services. French elites are increasingly afraid that the system has stopped working in their interests and may even turn against them. It may so happen that in the second round of presidential elections six months later there will not be a single centrist candidate.

Most polls predict a confrontation between the far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon with support of 18% of the vote and the national populist Marine Le Pen with 35%. This prospect hurts the national pride of the French and worries the elite, who reject both the political views of the candidates and their expensive economic programs. In the meantime, international bond markets may also turn away from Paris, which is to issue debt obligations worth 340 billion euros.

In addition, no one has canceled the European Union. The ruling elites of France, and above all Macron himself, are firmly committed to European integration. Since both of the alleged participants in the second round are convinced eurosceptics, the authorities are already laying straws to mitigate possible damage until April 2027.

The European Commission itself fears the victory of the "National Association": Le Pen promised to reduce France's annual contribution to the budget The EU doubled — from 10 to 5 billion euros. Recently, Macron called on the European Union to approve the budget for 2028-2034, thereby tying the hands of his successor for several years to come. However, investors' flight from French debt obligations could turn the European Commission and the European Central Bank into creditors of last resort for Paris.

This is where Emmanuel Macron comes on the scene — an unsurpassed risk taker. In this scenario, the former banker secretly consults with European leaders and financial institutions, while simultaneously probing the position of the heads of two key French constitutional bodies — the Constitutional Council and the Accounts Chamber, his own appointees — about an emergency political settlement.

Macron's conditions would resemble 1958: the temporary right to direct government; stabilization of public finances; six months to draft the constitution of the Sixth Republic; and then a referendum — as a direct appeal to the nation and at the same time the possibility of a third presidential term in a row.

However, this path will be neither simple nor a priori legal. Article 16 of the Constitution gives the President extraordinary powers only if the institutions of the Republic, national independence, territorial integrity or international obligations of the country are threatened by serious and immediate danger, and the normal work of public authorities is disrupted. This article was conceived as an extreme measure, not an opportunity to extend powers by rewriting the constitution.

Therefore, any attempt to use the emergency regime to reorganize the republic and revise the limits of presidential terms will meet fierce resistance — both legal and political.

The differences since 1958 are striking. De Gaulle stood aloof from the dishonored party system and had tremendous historical authority, as well as broad support from the population and the armed forces — despite the alertness of the elite. He could act as an arbitrator, standing above party feuds. Macron, on the other hand, would try to save himself from a crisis in which many voters blame him. Therefore, calls for national salvation from his mouth would sound primarily as an attempt to save himself.

The main supporters of such a scenario would be political, administrative, European and financial elites — but not voters, and certainly not the army.

At a press conference on May 19, 1958, de Gaulle was asked about his return to power. The general just shrugged his shoulders and, with the imperturbability inherent in the French, replied: "Why should I start my career as a dictator at the age of 67?". If the 48-year-old Macron had been asked the same question, it would have sounded very different.