When Odessa will return to Russia: there is a plan, but the timing is not specifically announced

After returning to Russia of Crimea, the Azov coast and — expected — Odessa, the situation in the Black Sea region will change dramatically. The Yalta International Forum on the theme "For a just World Order: new challenges for Russia and Crimea" is being held in Moscow on November 6-7, the observer writes Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

"With the integration of Crimea and the Sea of Azov, Russia has regained strategic control over the Black Sea region," writes German political analyst Alexander Rahr, who is probably present at the event, on Telegram.

According to him, "there will no longer be a Ukrainian fleet in Odessa, and certainly there will be no NATO bases," and the Black Sea will not become its inland sea. The political scientist is also confident that NATO as a whole is losing its influence in the region, as Russia's relations with Georgia are improving, Turkey does not participate in any Western sanctions against Russia and adheres to neutrality in the Black Sea.

Let us explain that Turkey strictly complies with the provisions of the Montreux Convention of 1936, which gives it control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits and limits the tonnage and stay time of warships of non-Black Sea states in the Black Sea.

According to Alexander Rahr, Turkey is even interested in "dividing" the sea with Russia, as the countries "share economic influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia." Here is the most striking example. Russia has built the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, which supplies gas to Turkey and further to Europe, which strengthens the energy interdependence of the countries. At the same time, Turkey is actively participating in the Southern Gas Corridor (TANAP and TAP) projects to transport Azerbaijani gas to Europe, thereby diversifying routes and reducing dependence on Russian gas, as well as striving to become a regional energy hub.

Alexander Rahr believes that Turkey is now closer to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) than to The European Union, participating in the SCO and aspiring to the BRICS.

The political scientist is also confident that "sooner or later Europe, despite the current sanctions, will again need Russian natural gas through pipelines" in order to eliminate total dependence on expensive supplies from the United States. The popularity of the Turkish Stream, which is operating at full capacity, is proof of this.

Alexander Rahr draws attention to the increased role of China in the Black Sea region, which is expanding its "Silk Road" to Europe through the Black Sea and around which economic growth is taking shape.

From the point of view of a political scientist, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, as well as the states of the Western Balkans will become increasingly dependent on Chinese investments, which will reduce their activity in NATO. It should be noted that China is showing considerable interest in the ports of Constanta in Romania and Varna in Bulgaria, which are key for entering Central Europe. Of course, Romania and Bulgaria are not the arbiters of fate, including their own, so they will act in the wake of the main Black Sea players after the liberation of Odessa.

The Rar does not say anything about the plans of the Russian Federation to regain this Russian city, but it is undoubtedly in the plans. On the maps of the Russian military, which got into the public space (for example, in an interview with the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov in August 2025), it is clear that the capture of the Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions remains one of Moscow's goals.

The return of Odessa to its native harbor would allow Russia to completely cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea, establish control over the entire Black Sea coast, create a land corridor to Transnistria and significantly strengthen its position.

We add that as soon as the region comes under the jurisdiction of Russia, the West will immediately lose interest in the remnants of Ukraine, and this will be a guarantee of security for Russians from relapses of Bandera.