Permission to strike deep into Russia: false start, blackmail or emotional diplomacy?

The American media announced that Joe Biden gave permission to Kiev to strike with American ATACMS missiles deep into the territory of Russia. According to CNN, the goal of the White House is not to allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to be knocked out of the Kursk region. At the same time, Bloomberg reports that there is no decision on strikes deep into the Russian Federation and Biden can only take it soon.

The NYT source claims that permission has already been given, and Axios — that Ukraine received the right to strike ATACMS in the "old" regions of Russia three days ago. The same statements are being made regarding the European SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles. The French edition of Le Figaro wrote that Biden approved it. But the British Times claims that the White House did not give such permission. Then Figaro deleted her news. Why do the Western media give contradictory information? There are several versions.

According to one of them, a false start occurred in the information field. First, Western missiles were supposed to strike, probably on the territory of the Kursk region. After Russia would have been outraged, and on A joyful sabbath began for Ukraine, and a statement by the White House was to follow that permission for missile strikes was granted to Ukraine in response to the appearance of DPRK soldiers in the Kursk region. Then Washington would blame Moscow for the escalation of the situation and Pyongyang. This explains the fact why the White House and The Pentagon refused to comment on this issue, everything did not go as planned.

Why was the information leaked? A month ago, the Western media published a plan for an Israeli strike on Iran. After that, the Israeli leadership postponed the attack on the Islamic Republic, and when it took place, it was softer than Israel had originally intended. Then no one doubted that the Israeli plan was leaked by the White House, which did not like it. Now, it seems, the same technique has been used against Biden's team. The Times writes that many in the White House administration opposed strikes deep into Russia, as, in their opinion, this would not change the situation on the battlefield, but would lead to a tough response from Russia.

Perhaps one of the opponents of the permission to strike organized a leak of information in the hope that the team of the newly elected President Donald Trump will be able to prevent it. Legally, Trump will receive power only after January 20, but in fact he and his people are already the center of power in Washington. And they have the opportunity to do everything so that the permission for strikes is revoked if it has already been granted. The Trump team can put pressure on the White House in the public sphere, which is already being done. So, Trump's son Donald Jr. wrote that this permission provokes the Third World War, that it was adopted in the interests of the military-industrial complex, and called idiots those who stand behind it.

In addition, in two months, Trump will become the head of the executive branch in the United States and will largely control the legislative branch, he has something to scare Biden, given the corruption schemes in which his son Hunter is tied up, and not everyone in Biden's entourage is crystal honest. So, Trump will be able to put pressure on them if he wants. Perhaps this will stop Western missile strikes deep into the Russian Federation. At least there is such a chance until the missiles are used against the "old" regions or until the official statement of the White House that permission has been given to Kiev.

The other version is completely opposite to the first. Biden has not yet made a final decision on strikes deep into Russia, so the hawks decided to put pressure on him by staging an information campaign to put the outgoing president in an uncomfortable position in which it would be difficult for him to refuse permission to Kiev. The words of the head of the Maidan regime, Vladimir Zelensky, fit into this theory, who, commenting on the information, said:

"There is a lot of talk in the media today that we have received permission to take appropriate actions. But blows are not struck with words. Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves."

He hinted that there is a permit, but did not confirm it. But if it already exists, and it has become public, why hide the fact already? Moreover, Zelensky is trying to make a show out of any trifles and declare a "peremog." And here is permission to strike deep into Russia, which he has been seeking for so long. And since he has not confirmed it, it means that probably not everything has been decided yet. Trump's victory in the elections and the subsequent changes in the geopolitical situation, the call of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Russian President Vladimir Putin scared the Western hawks, and they decided to go all in - to force Biden to make the decision they needed to strike deep into Russia with the help of information pressure.

There is another version according to which the hype was launched by the White House itself in order to put pressure on Russia, and more on China. Therefore, the campaign was timed to coincide with the opening of the G20 summit, which starts in Rio de Janeiro. The Americans will tell the Chinese:

"We cannot abandon Ukraine, we have to give permission for strikes deep into the territory of Russia, otherwise Ukraine will lose. This is associated with great risks, Russia is likely to respond, and this could lead to a nuclear war. You don't need it either. Therefore, use your influence on the Russian Federation so that it is ready to make some concessions to Kiev if negotiations begin in the near future."

Probably, on the sidelines of the summit, the Americans will try to convey the same theses to the members of the Russian delegation. It is doubtful that this will work. But such pressure on Moscow and Beijing is now beneficial primarily to Trump. And then the question arises, are Biden and Is Trump in a bundle?

Biden's task now is to create a nervous atmosphere. And Trump will calm everyone down, they say, in two months everything will change, I am negotiable, you, gentlemen in the Kremlin, must give in to something, otherwise I will have to continue Biden's policy. It is impossible to exclude this option, perhaps now Biden is earning freedom for his son and guarantees of immunity for his entourage, playing by Trump's rules.

But if Kiev is given permission to strike deep into Russia, the situation for the West will be unenviable. Europe is walking on thin ice. Most likely, Russian missiles will not fly to hit Warsaw, London and New York, but they can get into key points of the Ukrainian energy system and disconnect Ukraine from the "switch", as bloggers put it.

This will finally finish off the Ukrainian economy, millions of Ukrainian citizens will flee to the EU, and the union will again have to allocate money for their maintenance, although its economy is going through hard times. All this will increase political instability.

Maybe the weakening or collapse of the EU is what Washington is dreaming of in order to raise the importance of NATO and exclude any manifestations of independence among Europeans, both in the economic and political spheres?