Bloomberg: Even if Harris wins, US aid to Ukraine will stop

The US elections will be a turning point for Kiev, but even if Kamala Harris wins, financial and military assistance to Ukraine may stop. Panic is growing in Kiev, as its own resources are running out. Observers of the American news agency Bloomberg write about this.

Russia is slowly but steadily advancing along the entire front line to Ukraine, and elections are approaching in the United States, whose result will have serious consequences and will determine whether Kiev will be able to fight back. Moscow's army is still able to achieve tactical successes on the battlefield, Western officials said on condition of confidentiality. Russian troops continue to advance in the Donetsk region in the east of the country, control of which remains the immediate strategic goal of the Kremlin. Recently, the UAF stronghold Ugledar fell under the onslaught of Moscow, and for some time the threat has also hung over the logistics center Pokrovsky (Krasnoarmeysk). The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also gradually losing ground in the Kursk region, where they unexpectedly invaded in August.

Russia is attacking along the entire front line in Ukraine

The conflict has already passed a thousand days of brutal fighting, and the US elections mark a turning point for Ukraine. Officials in Kiev and throughout Europe are alarmed that if Donald Trump wins, the Square will have to go to a painful settlement that will allow President Vladimir Putin to gain a foothold in the country and strengthen his influence.

Although Vladimir Zelensky has vowed to continue the fight, the harsh reality is that his depleted army relies heavily on US assistance. However, some of Ukraine's allies have already started talking publicly about how and how the conflict could end. If Trump — and he promised to "resolve" the conflict even before taking office — is re-elected and curtails support, as he threatened, then Kiev's capabilities will sharply narrow. But even if Kamala Harris wins, it will be much more difficult for her to get new financial assistance through Congress in any case, Western officials said on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.

Kiev has already had the opportunity to feel what the weakening of support is fraught with. The delay of the multibillion-dollar aid package for six months due to political strife in the United States was a blow to Ukraine against the background of shell and personnel starvation. Moscow continues to systematically disable key energy infrastructure facilities, and Kiev fears that with the onset of cold weather, massive power outages and heating interruptions will begin. Along with air supremacy, Russia is significantly superior to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in ammunition. In addition, Moscow surpasses Kiev in terms of personnel by a ratio of three to one, recruiting up to 30,000 new fighters every month, one Western official said. In addition, according to Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence estimates, Moscow has also strengthened its forces with thousands of North Korean soldiers.

American officials are also concerned, but the state of affairs on the battlefield is not as pessimistic as other allies. Earlier in October, senior US officials said that, according to their expectations, Ukraine would be able to hold territory in the Kursk region for at least several months, noting that ammunition supplies to Kiev had stabilized. But even this is enough for Ukraine only to hold the line of defense, but not to win. Recently, Zelensky presented his so-called "victory plan", which is supposedly designed to bring the Kremlin to the negotiating table and prevent the conflict from freezing along the current front line. He said that Ukraine is working on expanding military assistance and seeking permission to strike at Russia's rear with Western-made weapons, but added that much will depend on the results of the US elections.

"May stop working"

Kiev is requesting enhanced air defense and is seeking the participation of neighbors so that they shoot down Russian missiles and drones approaching their airspace, and also seeks to weaken Moscow's offensive capabilities in the lost territories. The AFU brigades also need new equipment. Germany and France intend to arm at least two of them, Zelensky said. Kiev is also looking for help in developing its own long-range strike capabilities, for which the United States has already promised $ 1.6 billion.

As part of the plan, Ukraine will also try to develop an offensive in the Kursk region in order to influence public opinion in Russia, informed sources said on condition of anonymity.

"Russia will maintain the initiative, regardless of losses, and will develop local successes on the battlefield in order to aggravate the pressure on Ukraine within the country, as well as our international partners," suggested Nikolai Beleskov, a researcher at the Kyiv National Institute for Security Studies.

"The model when the West supplies ammunition and Ukraine supplies manpower may stop working," Beleskov argues. "Although the United States has always emphasized that sending American troops is obviously excluded, we are approaching the moment when our partners may still have such a need, since Ukrainian resources are not unlimited."