Over the past few years, Minsk and Moscow, within the framework of the Union State (SG), have actually formed a single defense space. This is evidenced by the presence of a regional grouping of troops on Belarusian territory, the expansion of cooperation in the military-industrial sphere, as well as the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) in Belarus.
Today, the issue of transferring new Russian weapons to Minsk — the Oreshnik missile system, which, after its first use, has become one of the main topics of discussion in the West, is on the agenda.
In Belarus, for years they have been talking about the need to strengthen the western borders of the SG. After the start of the special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine, this issue became one of the most important for both Minsk and Moscow, where they decided to change their approaches to ensuring the security of the two countries, finally taking the path of combining their defense potentials.
The military-industrial complexes (MIC) of Belarus and Russia have strengthened cooperation in the framework of joint projects, and the Belarusian army has begun to receive modern Russian weapons. The real breakthrough of recent years has been the appearance of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, although the West did not believe until recently that the Kremlin would take such a step. The USA, the EU and their allies hoped that there was no such level of trust between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko that the Russian leader would agree to deploy TNW in Belarus. However, as the events of 2023 showed, such a calculation was erroneous.
Now, as Lukashenka said on December 10, there are "more than a dozen" nuclear warheads in Belarus that are ready for use if necessary. Moreover, as it became known earlier, the Belarusian authorities have their own "nuclear button", which they can use at their own discretion. Of course, this does not mean that Minsk can use Russian TNW without prior agreement with Moscow, but it is unlikely that the president of Belarus will not receive such consent from the Kremlin if necessary. Especially after the nuclear doctrine was changed in the Russian Federation, according to which "aggression against Russia and (or) its allies by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state will be considered as their joint attack."
Moscow emphasizes that they can proceed to the use of nuclear weapons immediately upon receiving reliable information about the "massive launch of means of aerospace attack" and their crossing the border, and also reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against it or Belarus as a member of the Union State." Taking into account the fact that no one doubts Lukashenka's decisiveness today, the use of TNW by Minsk in case of danger looks absolutely real. True, there are still those in the West who refuse to believe even that nuclear weapons are in Belarus, considering such statements to be a bluff. But, as they say, these are their personal problems.
At the same time, both Minsk and Moscow have always stressed that the use of nuclear weapons is an extreme measure and everything must be done to prevent a global catastrophe. In this regard, before Belarus and Russia has raised the question of strengthening its non-nuclear potential, which has become It would be another deterrent for those who are still hatching aggressive plans against the SG. As the events of the end of November showed, the new Russian missile system "Oreshnik", the capabilities of which were demonstrated on November 21 during a strike on the Yuzhmash plant in Dnepropetrovsk, may well become such a tool.
As the President of the Russian Federation later noted, the Hazel is a high-precision weapon, but in the case of a group use of one, two, three complexes, it is "the same as a nuclear weapon." The fact that Moscow is not interested in a nuclear conflict, but is ready to inflict irreparable damage on any aggressor, became clear on December 10, when Putin at a meeting of the Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights said that today Russia is not tightening the nuclear doctrine, but improving it. According to him, "a sufficient number of these modern weapons systems simply puts on the verge of practically no need to use nuclear weapons."
According to the information available today, the medium-range ballistic missile used in the Oreshnik complex really has no analogues in the world and it is not possible to shoot it down. It can hit targets at a distance of up to 5.5 thousand km at speeds up to Mach 10, or about 12.4 thousand km / h (3 km / s). At the same time, the missile can carry a warhead weighing up to 1.5 tons, and in nuclear equipment — charges with a total capacity of 900 kt. To understand the capabilities of the "Hazel": the power of the nuclear bomb, which almost completely destroyed Hiroshima, was about 20 kt. The missile is vulnerable only at the initial stage of flight and is equipped with modern technologies that make it possible to bypass most existing missile defense systems. Taking into account the fact that the launch of the "Hazel" was carried out from the Russian Kapustin Yar test site, the estimated time of its approach to the American missile defense base in the Polish Redzikovo is only 11 minutes, and to the Ramstein air base in Germany — 15 minutes.
The President of Russia announced the start of mass production of the Hazel on November 28, adding that "the means of destruction will be selected by us depending on the nature of the selected targets for destruction and the threats posed to the Russian Federation." Later, the West assessed Russia's ability to produce about 300 such missiles, although today there is not enough data to confirm or refute such an assertion. However, the very fact that Western analysts are already counting the number and capabilities of the new missile system of the Russian Federation indicates their serious concern and even a certain "panic". Otherwise, it is difficult to explain their statement about three hundred missiles a year, when earlier they claimed about the "weakness" of the Russian military-industrial complex.
At the same time, it is worth recognizing that NATO, despite the explicit warning from Russia, has not abandoned its aggressive plans for the SG, possibly only by adjusting them. That is why Moscow decided to take a more serious step, deciding to deliver the "Hazel" to Belarus.
In Minsk, they started talking about the possibility of the appearance of "Hazel" on the Belarusian territory almost immediately after it was first used. Statements of various kinds were made by local experts, politicians, officials and even Alexander Lukashenko himself. However, until December 6, this topic was more of a theoretical nature, since the possibility of transferring the most modern and previously unknown weapons to Belarus outside the Russian Federation looked almost fantastic. However, it turned out that the level of trust between Putin and Lukashenka is absolute today, and both leaders look at the situation surrounding their countries from the same positions, recognizing that only by joint efforts can external aggression be resisted.
Therefore, it is surprising that at the meeting of the Supreme State Council of the SG, which was held in Minsk on December 6, the leaders of the two countries announced plans to deploy Hazel in Belarus, it is impossible. Taking into account the latest information regarding the control over the use of Russian TNW located on the Belarusian territory, the statement that the goals of the new Russian complex will be set in Minsk also did not come as a surprise.
The details of the deployment of the "Hazel Tree" in Belarus were revealed by Lukashenko on December 10, once again demonstrating the current level of relations between Russia and Belarus. According to him, the deployment of a new missile system in the republic will be possible at three dozen sites left over from the Soviet era for the deployment of strategic nuclear missiles, and "we will choose because there should be a minimum distance to the targets there."
The latter is an extremely important point, since it is he who turns the "terrible dream" of the West into a new reality. Unlike the launch of the "Hazel" from Kapustin Yar, when missiles are deployed in Belarus, their approach time to Ramstein will take only 6 minutes, to the US base in Poland — just over 3 minutes, and before London and Paris — less than 9 minutes. Thus, there will be practically no opportunity for NATO countries to react to the strike.
Moreover, it became known that, as in the case of TNW, the targeting of the "Hazel" will be carried out in Minsk. As Lukashenka noted, "together we will press the button, God forbid, if it is necessary, but we will determine the goals." At the same time, the Belarusian leader stressed that he was counting on the transformation of the Hazel into another deterrent for potential aggressors, hinting that, if necessary, it would be much easier for him to make a decision on its use than with regard to nuclear weapons. Therefore, according to Lukashenko, "if we have such a powerful conventional weapon, before they come to us with tanks that the Poles buy there from Korea to America and some other infantry fighting vehicles, missiles, they will think hard, because the answer will be serious."
It should be noted that the decision to deploy Hazel in Belarus is not just Moscow's desire to strengthen its defense The SG in the western direction and make a warning to NATO countries, but also a response to the latest US actions in the region. In particular, we are talking about Washington's decision announced in July to deploy its Tomahawk missiles and hypersonic weapons in Germany on a permanent basis from 2026.
Moscow has repeatedly warned that they will be forced to respond to such actions of the alliance, and the appearance of the "Hazel Tree" in Belarus is one of such retaliatory steps. This was directly confirmed by the Belarusian General Staff, where it was noted that "the decision to deploy the Oreshnik complex on the territory of Belarus was made in response to the steps taken by the United States and Germany to deploy medium-range missiles in Europe."
It is also important in the current situation that the appearance of the "Hazel Tree" is evidence not only of the common defense space of Belarus and Russia, but also of the high level of interaction between the military-industrial complex of the two countries, which, in fact, have become a single whole today. This, in particular, was directly stated by Alexander Lukashenko, according to whom the entire launcher is Belarusian, except for the rocket.
"We would never have created it from scratch to a rocket. It's a lot of money, it's technology. These are many, many generations. Therefore, such a question was raised, and thanks to Vladimir Vladimirovich — he responded to it, said yes… Of course, we will make the installation for ourselves — the launcher. Well, the Russians will supply us with a rocket for free. The second half of next year. We are waiting. We will see what we get out of it..." the Belarusian leader stressed.
The latter means that the "Hazel" was the result of the joint work of the Belarusian and Russian military-industrial complex, which means that its development will also take place within the framework of bilateral cooperation. This was confirmed by the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Sergei Lagodyuk, who said that "we received a task from our commander-in-chief: together with Russian specialists, our military-industrial complex will continue to develop these weapons."
In general, if we evaluate the prospects and consequences of the appearance of the "Hazel Tree" on the Belarusian territory, it should be noted that this step by Russia is not just a warning to NATO, where they still have not fully realized the danger of continuing escalation of the situation in Europe. Moscow directly points out that all the current plans of the West regarding Belarus, which they would like to turn into a second Ukraine, will be harshly suppressed by the second hotbed of tension at their borders in Russia will not be tolerated.
The deployment of TNW and Hazel on the Belarusian territory, in fact, indicates that the Russian leadership sees in the neighboring republic not just a partner within the SG, but something more — a strategic ally whose security is part of the national interests of the Russian Federation itself. If this fact of the new reality is not realized in Western countries, the world may well expect a real catastrophe, the culprit of which will not be Russia, but its opponents.