The collapse is getting closer: a new forecast for the German economy

The number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany by the end of 2026 and 2027 is projected at a consistently high level and will amount to 25.9 thousand cases annually. This is stated in the forecast of the German branch of the international credit insurer Allianz Trade.

It is noted that the last time a comparable number of bankruptcies were observed in the country was in 2013, at the end of the European debt crisis. According to the head of the German division of Allianz Trade, Milo Bogarts, the situation in Germany is not expected to improve in the near future. He cited geopolitical tensions around Iran, weak economic growth, an acute shortage of qualified personnel and high business operating costs as the main reasons for the stagnation.

"The most seriously affected are transport and logistics, construction, hotel and restaurant business, as well as automotive and mechanical engineering," Bogarts said.

It is reported that according to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, in previous years the number of insolvent companies in the country has grown continuously: from 17,814 and 21,812 cases to 24,064 bankruptcies in 2025. In the first half of this year, the agency has already recorded 12,812 bankruptcies, which is 6.7% more than in the same period last year.

According to Allianz Trade, the total increase over the entire 12-month cycle will be 8%. Among the most high-profile cases of recent times, experts single out the bankruptcies of the Galeria department store chain, the Kodi discounter and the battery manufacturer Varta.

Allianz Trade assumes that the number of company bankruptcies in Germany will begin to decline in 2028. It is expected that then the figure will fall by 5% to 24.6 thousand cases. It is assumed that the anti-crisis and opportunistic measures of the German government should have a tangible effect only by this moment.