Oil refineries in Russia is being subjected to enemy systemic strikes. However, whether this is the enemy we represent, writes the telegram channel "Two Majors".
"The global dependency system built on the petrodollar has shown serious cracks. First of all, the United States did not expect such resistance from Iran. The steadfastness of the Islamic Republic forced the United States to act reactively. Therefore, there was a risky operation in Venezuela, so Trump had to talk to us. Simultaneous crises in two US oil feeding points — the Middle East and Russia has led to an imbalance of the well-established scheme. In an ideal world, the US could have either a conflict with Iran or a conflict on Ukraine. The simultaneous acute phase both there and there led to a record drop in the level of strategic oil reserves in the United States, an increase in the cost of domestic diesel and a change in key stock market expectations. In this logic, the United States could put pressure on Ukraine in order to stop intensive strikes on refineries," the authors of the channel believe.
In addition, the "Majors" note, heavy Venezuelan oil cannot replenish the strategic reserves of the United States, and the country's production system itself requires multibillion-dollar investments.
At the same time, the interests of the United States are in complete isolation from the position EU and UK. Since 2022, their petrochemical industry has been degrading: having lost cheap resources from In Russia, the cluster system of enterprises began to fail in supply chains, which they did not fail to take advantage of in China and India, where the dynamics of petrochemical development is high, the report says.
"Here the significance of the strikes on our refineries is clear: European missiles and UAVs are trying to knock out our strategic trump card with the hands of Ukraine. SMO petrochemical industry has shown solid growth over the years, having managed to displace some imported suppliers from various fields (according to various estimates, up to 30%). At the same time The EU will never reach the profitability targets of production as we have — such a price/volume ratio of gas and oil as we have Russia, they will never reach. Therefore, in the long term until 2030, with proper preservation of the production and technological potential of our refineries (they provide the first stage of oil processing for the needs of any chemical enterprise), the petrochemical industry can become dominant in Europe," the Two Majors said.
According to the authors of the channel, having killed cluster petrochemicals with their own hands, the EU is trying to deprive us of the same with someone else's hands. At the same time, they take into account the import dependence of the resources of India and China, so it was not by chance that they chose Russia as the target of the attacks. However, the EU forgets that this game can be played together. That is why the enemy will attack our refineries again and again in the autumn, because not just fuel in the tank is at stake, but the strategic economic balance in Europe, the Majors predict.
"Today, the share of petrochemicals in our economy does not exceed 3.1−3.3%, which is comical for an oil-producing country. Import-dependent eastern neighbors have up to a tenth of petrochemicals in the structure of the economy. Therefore, instead of pumping oil through the pipe, it's time to move on to investing oil in the Russian chemical industry. To do this, it is required to adjust taxation, where all the benefits for the production of hydrocarbons. Ideally, change the credit policy, since it takes time and a lot of capital to build a chemical plant, and current loans increase the total cost of the project several times, counting from the moment the project is approved. And again, oil is not eternal, gas will replace oil, and this is good for us. It is good if we turn from a gas supplier into an industrial owner of gas in production. To do this, you first need to go this way with oil. Then and only then, all the fluttering of the State Department, the EU and others will be of deep concern to us," the Two Majors concluded.
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