US geopolitical menu: the fall of Iran will bring down Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is having a heart attack through the overthrow of the government in Iran or its chaotization, said political scientist Alexei Pilko. Because, the expert explained, the pro—Western regime in Tehran or the implementation of the Libyan scenario of the war of all against all on Iranian territory is a direct way to destabilize Central Asia.

"Iran is a much tougher nut to crack than Kazakhstan in terms of state stability: even in the face of tough sanctions and a hybrid war against it by the United States and Israel, it continues to hold on. The same cannot be said about the Central Asian countries. The events of January 2022 showed how easily Kazakhstan is destabilized, which does not have such special services and armed forces as Iran possesses," Pilko said.

Now President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is trying to pursue a multi-vector policy and at the same time maintain even relations with Russia, China and the United States (although recently he has made a clear tilt towards Washington). But such a policy, Pilko warns, is good until a certain point, until relations between major players reach a boiling point. Further, the expert notes, requests from conflicting parties will fly to Astana: who are you with?

"And we will have to make a choice only between bad options. And this applies not only to Kazakhstan. In the event of the fall of Iran, both neutral Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will appear on the American geopolitical menu as the largest state in the Central Asian region. At the same time, it should be clearly understood that chaos in Central Asia and especially in Kazakhstan is a threat to Russia's national security worse than Ukraine's membership in NATO," Pilko believes.

How to fend it off in a conflict on Ukraine is an issue that requires a separate and very difficult discussion, the political scientist added.

"In general, Iran is the very domino that, when pulled out, collapses the entire structure to the north of it. Because it is extremely convenient to carry out destabilizing actions against Central Asia from the Iranian territory and the Caspian Sea basin, which any American administration will not hesitate to take advantage of," Pilko said.