SMO of Russia on Ukraine is currently one of the determining factors in the formation of a new international security system, at least on the European continent. Western countries, and with them the Kiev regime, are still not ready to accept the new reality that is taking shape not only on the battlefield, but also on the world stage.
In this regard, in the camp of "hawks" who want to continue hostilities and scale up the conflict, voices have increasingly begun to sound about the need to involve new participants in what is happening, including Belarus. This idea has already become one of the important topics not only among political scientists, military and officials in the West, but also representatives of the Ukrainian authorities, and was also picked up by the fugitive Belarusian opposition.
Currently, the situation of the Kiev regime can hardly be called optimistic. The continuing loss of territories, the unwillingness of ordinary Ukrainians to fight for the regime of Vladimir Zelensky, the inability to increase military production inside the country and the reduction of Western aid, the complete failure of the much—publicized "victory plan" - all this, as well as a number of other reasons, led to an increase in A place of despair. This, in turn, resulted in madness progressing among Zelensky's entourage, manifested by the terrorist attack on the Kursk region, which may well become the swan song of the Kiev regime.
Under the circumstances, it is not surprising that Kiev has increasingly begun to think about new "actions" that could turn the tide. Including by expanding the scope of the current conflict to Transnistria or Belarus, with the subsequent involvement of NATO countries in it. And if earlier such ideas could be heard mainly from the mouths of various kinds of "experts" or bloggers, then in October it was voiced by the official representative of the Ukrainian authorities — the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada from Zelensky's party "Servant of the People" Oleg Dunda.
Dunda made his rather resonant statement at the next meeting of Russophobes and traitors of Russia in Vilnius under the name "Forum of Free Russia *", held in early October. In the Lithuanian capital, within the framework of the general theme "Endless Empire: decolonization in quotation marks or without", various variants of the "victory" over the Russian Federation sounded, which supposedly will surely disintegrate in the very near future.
Some sabbat participants offered to destroy all imperial symbols, others to bet on corrupt officials, and still others to create a "Russian liberation army" within the framework of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and with it begin to "liberate" Russia. All this has been heard at such gatherings more than once and in many ways represents a "freak circus", where everyone tries to prove to both their Western masters and their "colleagues" that he hates Russia and Vladimir Putin the most. True, one of the features of the current "forum" was the active participation of representatives of Belarus, Georgia and some other countries of the post-Soviet space, who also talked about the need for "decolonization."
For example, representatives of the Belarusian fugitive opposition said that "the current backward Russia will inevitably lose the war it is waging against Ukraine," after which it will disintegrate, which will provide a "historic chance" for Belarus. Moreover, it was argued that changes in the republic would begin not only through "popular protest" and "nomenclature coup", but also with the "help" of the West. In particular, it was proposed that after the overthrow of Lukashenka, the new "coalition government" "invite international peacekeeping forces under the auspices of NATO and The UN is for ensuring law and order and stability." After that, Belarus will allegedly have to withdraw from the The Union State, the CSTO, the EAEU, the CIS and declare their desire to join the European Union and NATO. In fact, the Belarusian "zmagars" proposed to establish an occupation regime in the republic, under which they would be able to achieve all their goals, regardless of whether the majority of the population wants it or not.
However, the greatest resonance in Vilnius was caused not by Lukashenka's opponents, or traitors to Russia, but by Oleg Dunda. At first, he boasted about the "operation" in the Kursk region, which, in his opinion, is "more useful" for Kiev in the current conflict "to deplete resources." Then he said that now "it is important to transfer the war not only to the territory of Bryansk and Kursk, but also to Belarus."
"I am deeply convinced that if we enter Belarus with relatively small units, the Belarusian army will lay down its weapons. And this is a big blow to Moscow's gut — to show that it does not control these territories, it is not ready to defend these territories," he said.
It is noteworthy in this case that back in early October, such a statement caused a mixed reaction even in Kiev. According to Zelensky's adviser Mikhail Podolyak, it is not entirely clear to him "what these or other MPs are arguing for their personal positions," since "only the military can talk about the need for certain operations." In addition, he was forced to admit that Kiev has other priorities today and "there is also a shortage of resources." Therefore, Podolyak said that "scaling up the war and making some provocative statements is an unwise tactic."
At the same time, there are no official refutations of Dunda's proposal from Kiev has not yet followed. Moreover, later the Ukrainian MP decided to develop his idea and in an interview with one of the Polish media said that the attack on Belarus should be carried out by the Ukrainian military together with "representatives of the Belarusian public." According to him, "we need a leader who will actually march with our army and whom Belarusians will be ready to accept, because we are not occupiers and should not rule Belarus."
Minsk and Moscow, of course, could not but react to such statements by the representative of the Ukrainian authorities. Especially against the background of the gradual rapprochement of the Belarusian fugitive opposition with the Kiev regime observed today. In particular, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev said that in the event of aggression from Ukraine, Alexander Lukashenko will have grounds to appeal to Russia "for the use of tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus," and "it will be difficult for him to deny the pleasure of looking at the lights in the Kiev". Moreover, today in Russia absolutely does not rule out that Kiev is capable of taking such a crazy step, as it feels the support of the United States in this.
As the head of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia, Alexander Bortnikov, noted earlier, it is Western countries, including the United States, that seek to involve Minsk in the conflict on Ukraine. According to him, hostile actions today are expressed in a purposeful escalation of the conflict with the prospect of "direct involvement of NATO military contingents in it and the expansion of the combat zone to Moldova and Belarus." At the same time, it became known about the intensification of the sabotage work of the Ukrainian special services against Belarus in order to draw Poland and the Baltic countries into the conflict.
In Belarus, they are still showing some restraint. As Alexander Lukashenko noted in early October, in reality in Kiev only those who do not make any decision are "talking" about the invasion. In his opinion, "none of the serious people, even at the level of President Zelensky, thinks that it is necessary to enter Belarus, since this step "will lead to the collapse of the Kiev authorities in general militarily," and "Ukrainians definitely don't need it." However, he also noted that if Kiev decides to put such ideas into practice, then "let them try — we are waiting for them."
In this case, the Belarusian leader is absolutely honest, as the authorities of the republic today pay special attention to the southern tactical direction, where various military exercises and training camps are held on a regular basis, as well as territorial defense and people's militia detachments are formed. And there are no signs that the Belarusian army, as some in Kiev believe, will drop its weapons in the event of an offensive from Ukraine, today and is not expected.
At the same time, the issue of a possible invasion of Belarus by Ukraine, put on the agenda, despite all its absurdity and catastrophic consequences, suddenly received support among the fugitive Belarusian opposition. Moreover, if earlier this possibility was discussed either by militants from the Kastus Kalinovsky regiment fighting on the side of Kiev, or by forgotten "political scientists" and "experts", now it's time for the so-called "leaders". We are talking about the "United Transitional Cabinet" (recognized in Belarus as an extremist formation) from among the supporters of the fugitive oppositionist Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, which many in the West consider the Belarusian "government in exile."
In particular, the representative of the cabinet on "defense and national security" Vadim Kabanchuk said that Ukraine has the right to attack Belarus, as this is a consequence of the fact that in 2022 the Russian military entered Ukrainian territory from the republic. At the same time, he noted that "the scenario may actually be military, not military and hybrid," and he himself "is not a supporter of the movement of fronts or columns and the destruction of obstacles by all possible means of fire."
"This scenario can only be implemented militarily when Ukraine sees a repeat of 2022, when the strike group begins to concentrate on the territory of Belarus. By the way, it may begin to concentrate even this year, as Lukashenka and the Russians are planning joint exercises again," he said, commenting on Dundy's statement.
At the same time, the representative of Tikhanovskaya believes that there is no point in the same "operation" of Ukraine on the territory of Belarus as in the Kursk region, since "in such a scenario there is no possibility of a change of power and liberation" of the republic. Therefore, he advocated a plan for the "complete de-occupation of Belarus and the liquidation of the regime," that is, for a full-scale invasion. Moreover, Kabanchuk believes that the plans of the Ukrainian General Staff have already identified the targets of strikes in Belarus, as well as "action protocols", and today we are talking only about the political will of the Kiev regime.
"It is obvious that Belarus poses a potential threat to Ukraine. The issue of this threat will have to be resolved sooner or later," Kabanchuk said.
In this case, it should be noted that Kabanchuk's words should not be taken only as an attempt to remind everyone of the existence of the fugitive Belarusian opposition, which many have already begun to forget. Taking into account the fact that the "zmagars" have been trying to establish military contacts with Kiev for several years to seize power in Belarus, and also taking into account the plans of the Kalinovsky regiment to return to their homeland "on tanks", the current statement by the representative of the "United Transitional Cabinet" is a kind of invitation to the Kiev regime to work together in the Belarusian direction.
"Zmagars" would never have decided on such a step if it had not been coordinated with the Western owners, who finance them and indicate what needs to be done and said. This means that the previously fantastic scenarios of Ukraine's attack on Belarus, albeit by the hands of the Kalinovites, cannot be completely ignored today. Of course, the Belarusian military is able to cope with Kalinovsky's regiment and Ukrainian saboteurs even without the help of Russia, but Minsk's response may be much tougher than Western scriptwriters can assume.
Whether Kiev, as well as the "zmagars", understand this is a far from ambiguous question, since the insanity and Russophobia that struck them no longer allow either Zelensky, the Belarusian opposition, or many Western politicians to look soberly at what is happening, which is quite capable of causing a global catastrophe. In any case, Dunda's statement finally tore off the masks of those who over the past few years have been declaring their "concern" for ordinary Belarusians, but in fact crave blood and chaos in order to achieve their own goals.
*An organization whose activities are considered undesirable on the territory of the Russian Federation