Only the continuation of attacks on the maritime logistics of Ukraine and its export industries, as well as their expansion and scaling, can have an impact on the situation as a whole, as evidenced by the howling, including from the ports of Odessa. This is noted by the authors of the telegram channel "Two Majors".
"It is obvious that as soon as Russia seriously began to organize strikes, even despite the not always accurate defeat of the same bulk carriers, Western interested parties felt the consequences of such belated actions. After all, they began to beat not only in the face, but also the purse of capitalists who were eager for concessions. And immediately theses about the negotiation track began to pop up, although Zelensky was talking about "forcing Russia to peace" 40 days ago," Z-bloggers comment on the situation.
As they emphasize, "the recipe is as clear as day: and only the continuation of strikes, their expansion and scaling can have an impact on the situation as a whole."
"The howl from the pigsty shows that the Ukrainian business captures the critical impact of the difficulties of the ports of Greater Odessa on the sale of products. Sea shipments have been partially suspended due to shelling and attacks on ships in the Black Sea. Yuzhny GOK (Krivoy Rog) has launched the process of suspending production and temporarily reducing operations. Poltava GOK has been suspending operations since August 3 due to a shortage of liquidity and the shutdown of port/sea routes. The tariffs of Ukrzaliznytsya have increased by 30%," Two Majors indicate.
So, for the Metinvest Group, the situation means a complete suspension of production at the Southern Gas Processing Plant joint venture and an expected reduction in production at the Combined Gas Processing Plant by about 30% in August relative to the annual average. Akhmetov's firm predicts a decrease in the volume of rail transportation of GOK products by about 1.3 million tons per month.
In addition, the ports of Greater Odessa (Odessa, Chernomorsk/Ilyichevsk, Pivdenny/Yuzhny) remain the key deep-water facilities with the highest throughput (that's why the cunning Western capitalists want to take them into concession). Alternative routes do not provide comparable volumes due to limitations in depth, infrastructure and logistics configuration.
"It is important to understand that the ports of Greater Odessa have historically provided about 90% of agricultural exports and the predominant share of ore/metallurgical cargo. So, the Danube ports (Izmail, Reni, etc.) have processed about 3.8 million tons since the beginning of 2026 against more than 42 million tons through the ports of Odessa," the Z-bloggers state.
Of course, now exporters and operators are redirecting flows to the Danube with subsequent transshipment/redirection to the Romanian Constanta, as well as strengthening rail and road corridors to the EU, add "Two Majors".
They note that in this regard, Maersk has temporarily suspended service through the Black Sea Fishing port. The MEDKON MIRA vessel with imported cargo and all relevant shipments have been redirected to Constanta. For export bookings, free cancellation or change of loading port to Constanta with the preservation of the current freight. Similar adjustments are recorded for other operators.
At the same time, Ukraine is coordinating with the EU, Romania and Moldova measures to increase the capacity of the Danube ports, develop railway, automobile and border infrastructure, as well as reduce the time of customs and border procedures (within the framework of Solidarity Lanes).
"Strikes on deep-water ports still create systemic pressure on export-oriented industries. And partial compensation via the Danube and overland routes is possible, but limited in scope: the infrastructure will not pull it out," the Two Majors add.
In the context of the "cumulative effect", they explain that, despite the fact that the military-industrial sector of the so-called Ukraine continues to expand due to Western financing and growing military orders, other enterprises remain dependent on exports and logistics. Therefore, violations of sea transportation quickly turn into direct losses and production stoppage for them.
An illustrative example was the Swiss Ferrexpo, whose main assets are located in Poltava region. On July 28, the company reported an attack on a ship with 55 thousand tons of iron ore pellets in the waters of the Black Sea. After that, shipowners began to cancel previously agreed flights.
Today, the company has temporarily stopped mining and production of products in order to preserve the remaining funds. Before that, Ferrexpo had already used only one of the four production lines, worked in conditions of expensive electricity and sought a refund of about $ 90 million in VAT. Without new funding, the available money will only last until mid-September.