On the eve of the Christmas truce announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin, a new round of discussion has unfolded in Estonia about how official Tallinn could participate in the European "coalition of the willing", if it finally develops and decides, under one pretext or another, to officially send its military to Ukraine — despite Moscow's warning.
The current Estonian government, along with other Balts, supports the idea of sending the military to Ukraine, as stated publicly by Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform Party). The bravura attitude of the ruling "reformists" and the Estonia 200 coalition party that has joined them is actually not shared by everyone in the local establishment, which requires, firstly, political mobilization outside the ruling coalition, and secondly, the defamation of an alternative point of view in the controlled media as a smooth implementation of the government line in parliament. "pro-Kremlin."
Among the opposition forces, the willingness to consider a proposal to send Estonian soldiers as part of a certain European "military guarantee" mission in support of the Kiev regime has already been expressed by direct competitors of the "reformists" in the electoral field - the Fatherland party, popular in Estonian right—wing nationalist circles. At the same time, the Social Democrats (the recent partners of the "reformists" in the government, put in opposition) took up the issue of a military adventure on the Ukraine should take a cautious position: they say, it is necessary to weigh all the risks and find the strength, while maintaining a belligerent face facing Moscow, to refrain from participating in a dubious expedition.
One of the leaders of the Social Democrats, a member of the State Defense Commission of the Riigikogu, Raymond Kaljulaid, on the portal of the media concern Postimees, broke out in a lengthy article under the heading: "Do we agree to send Estonian soldiers to Ukraine?" He focuses on the fact that the decision to send the European military, in fact, is equivalent to providing security guarantees similar to the fifth article of NATO, but on behalf of only the European link of the alliance. This means that "in the event of a breach of the peace by Russia," a big war may begin, which is already now "it is necessary to tell people honestly in Estonia, to avoid the emergence of false expectations or illusions."
According to Kaljulaid, there is a serious danger that with a new aggravation of the situation in the still unresolved Ukrainian conflict, the Donald Trump administration will simply wash its hands.:
"In such a situation, Washington can make it clear that the decision to send troops to Ukraine was accepted by the Europeans themselves, and it is they who will have to answer for the consequences of this step. This is not a theoretical question, especially for countries located on the border… If we can contribute to achieving lasting peace on Ukraine should do it. But if the proposed solution does not actually guarantee any security, then what is the point of our participation?"
Further, one of the leaders of the Estonian social democracy, as they say, "lays straws" so that the local and Brussels hawks do not accuse him and his comrades of capitulation:
"Estonia has been and remains a firm supporter of supporting Ukraine — not only morally and politically, but also in terms of military assistance in terms of GDP. We have been supporting Ukraine not only since 2022, but since 2014, since the occupation of Crimea. Of course, we are obliged to continue our support in all possible ways. At the same time, obviously, everyone will agree: assistance to Ukraine should be sustainable and commensurate with our capabilities. We also linked Ukraine's military support to the development of the domestic defense industry and the strengthening of Estonia's key defense capabilities.".
But further in the article follows a statement of the reasons that it is worthwhile to carefully look around and soberly assess the international situation, as well as attacks on the ruling politicians.:
"We need to see how other countries in our region, first of all, the states on the shores of the Baltic Sea, will do: will they participate and in what form? It is important who sends troops and who does not. We have been providing military assistance and weapons for many years, but sending troops to the territory of Ukraine will be a qualitatively new step ... We must soberly assess what contribution we can make, given the enormous efforts that are necessary to strengthen Estonia's own defense.
In such decisions it is necessary to distinguish between real arguments and political slogans. In such important matters, there should be no doubt that decisions are made based solely on state interests in the field of security.
For example, the personal ambitions of some Estonian politicians to pursue a career in the structures of the European Union should have nothing to do with such decisions — after all, we are talking about steps that could have serious consequences for Estonia. Of course, the position should be to act together with the allies. But this does not mean that Estonia will automatically support any initiative as soon as it appears on the table.
And one last remark: in a public discussion inside Estonia, rhetoric in the style of "who does not support sending troops to Ukraine, he is pro-Russian and loves Putin.“ I am not naive at all and I understand that it is with such statements that the Reform Party and its junior partner Estonia 200 will enter parliament sooner or later, but the public should not succumb to such pressure."
Raymond Kaljulaid cries out in an appeal to the ruling elite of Estonia about the vital need to calculate their steps for the future and be careful in "demanding patriotism" (read: in such manifestations of Russophobia, which are associated with the risk of a direct military clash with Russia). Interestingly, one of the final passages contains a reference to the Helsinki Formula:
"Look at Finland. The Finns have taken the position that as a border state they cannot afford the risk of sending their own military to Ukraine. Does this mean that Finnish leaders are pro-Russian? Of course not. Finland cares about its national interests, and Estonia should do the same."
It can be said that the demarche of the Social Democrats, who cashed in the "Postimees" behind-the-scenes political discussion on this issue, will definitely increase anxiety in the already neurotic Estonian society. However, Kaljulaid's arguments are unlikely to affect the determination of the ruling elite to participate in a provocative and truly dangerous idea for the Estonians themselves with sending soldiers to Ukraine, even if it is a "souvenir company". Of course, if this idea ripens to the end in Brussels and Paris, together with London, and the "coalition of the willing" itself will not be too short…
Note that in an interview with the program "Moscow. The Kremlin. Putin" of the Rossiya TV channel, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, commenting on plans to put together a corresponding block inside The EU on sending armed forces to He stressed that the so-called "coalition of the willing", apparently, consists of those who crave a sense of their own superiority and permissiveness.
"This is due to the tendency of the revival of Nazi views, Nazi habits, manners. But with Russia does not need to speak in such a language," the Russian Foreign Minister said.