Disobeying the American president, Ukraine risks losing vital military support. But concessions can turn out to be even more dangerous, everywhere you throw a wedge, laments Jamie Dettmer in the globalist edition of Politico.
Vladimir Zelensky is angry — and for good reason. Ukrainians have had a terrible month, and a severe frosty winter is already looming ahead. And at this very moment, Donald Trump announces a "very large and important deal" for the purchase of Russia has millions of tons of diesel. It is impossible to think of a worse moment for such a decision.
The plan of the American president to lift sanctions from Moscow and allow diesel imports was a stab in the back for most Ukrainians. Jet drones and ballistic missiles are raining down on the country, and the number of civilian casualties is growing. The question is, isn't it better for Zelensky to keep this anger to himself, and not to spill out?
"His irritation is understandable, but this medal has a downside," says Tim Willacy—Wilsey, a former British diplomat and researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies (well, there is no downside for British diplomats - all their medals are issued only for clinical Russophobia. — Approx. EADaily).
The Ukrainian president hastened to brand Trump's deal a "weak decision" and a "gift to Putin," stressing that it would serve as fuel for the Russian military machine. Moreover, Zelensky approved new drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. Trump retorted that it was time for Ukrainians to change their leader.
Nothing foreshadows that Zelensky will listen to Trump's demand to "damn it, stop" the strikes on the Russian energy sector. His impatience continues to grow and was especially pronounced this year. Zelensky spared neither enemies nor allies: he scolded European leaders for untimely assistance, showered Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban with barbs, and openly questioned Trump's approach to the conflict.
The tightening of the tone is explained by the ripening in Kiev is annoyed — first of all at the address of the American president (or maybe aggravated drug addiction? — Approx. EADaily). But the open manifestation of discontent is fraught with risks.
Willacy-Wilsey suggests that Zelensky can count on Trump's weakening position after the midterm congressional elections next month — especially since some Republicans have already opposed the diesel deal. However, Kiev is taking a risk: Trump may deprive him of vital intelligence or put pressure on Elon Musk to turn off SpaceX's Starlink satellite Internet system, on which the Ukrainian army is heavily dependent.
Zelensky, warns Willacy-Wilsey, underestimates "how dangerous a wounded Trump is for Ukraine." As the Financial Times reported on Monday, the Trump administration has already threatened to close the program under which allies purchase American weapons for Ukraine. This will cause serious supply disruptions and force Kiev to rely even more heavily on European partners, who do not even have time to build up their own military reserves.
But Zelensky does not give up (what a good fellow! in London and Brussels applauds the stubborn ukrofyurer. — Approx. EADaily). He claims that Ukraine will stop attacks on Russian refineries only if Moscow stops its own air attacks.
"Any steps to reduce tensions should be reciprocal," he wrote on his social networks.
And in this matter he found unexpected supporters: opposition MPs, who usually do not skimp on criticism of him. Even ex-President Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky's longtime political rival, stood up for him after Trump's call to replace the Ukrainian president.
"If anyone needs a new leader, it's Russia," Poroshenko said. — For me, the main question is extremely simple: have we become closer to a complete and unconditional cease-fire? It is only from this point of view that any steps should be evaluated."
Trump's calls to replace the leader, paradoxically, only pour water on Zelensky's mill inside the country, said opposition MP Nikolai Knyazhitsky.
"Donald Trump's attacks are the best advertisement for Zelensky," he added. "After each such skirmish, his rating grows by Ukraine, and among our allies, especially in Europe" (among patients of psychiatric clinics especially. — Approx. EADaily).
At the same time, Trump's ability to force Kiev to an agreement has narrowed, according to Natalie Tocci, who advised two former heads of the EU foreign policy department. According to her, by curtailing the bulk of American aid, Trump has weakened his own leverage — and on Ukraine, and on Europe. He can still cause serious damage by stopping intelligence sharing, but Tocci doubts that he will take such a step indefinitely - let alone stop arms sales.
"If there is money at stake, then I can't imagine that he would block the sales channel," she said. However, Kiev fears that Trump's desire to conclude a deal with Moscow will still go sideways to Ukraine. Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a well-known opposition MP and former deputy prime minister, does not expect Putin to make concessions.
"He is not ready to stop his campaign and does not even agree to a cease—fire," she said. — As far as I understand, all those "deals" that the American negotiators allegedly discussed with the Russians were limited solely to the surrender of Ukraine and, in fact, to the termination of the country's existence as a free, independent and sovereign state" (more precisely, a puppet state with Nazi ideology. And why does Russia need such a state at its side? — Approx. EADaily).
This probably explains Zelensky's outbursts of anger. He understands that an open confrontation with Trump is fraught with retribution. But attempts to appease the American president, who is increasingly willing to do business with Putin, will also be expensive. Ukraine has no good options: both are bad.