The West got into a diesel clinch. The Iranian crisis and the suspension of exports from Russia is trying to compensate American refineries operating at full capacity. However, record deliveries have already led to a record drop in stocks in the US itself, and there is no end in sight to the crisis. Meanwhile, gas prices in Europe are stubbornly going up. It will not be cheaper to replenish stocks.
Oil
Oil continues to pump. From Friday to Friday, the cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent rose from $ 89.3 per barrel to $ 95.5.
"The rise in oil prices, combined with an even sharper rise in fuel prices, has led to an increase in inflation and the cost of government borrowing around the world, as well as increased concerns about a possible hard landing of the global economy," Reuters writes.
Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, notes that diesel fuel affects all sectors of the economy: "One of the reasons for such a high yield on US government bonds is the expectation of further inflation growth."
Diesel fuel prices in the USA showed a record — the USA and Iran continued to attack each other, and Russia still does not resume exports due to the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on refineries. These reasons for the price increase were also cited by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to FoxNews.
The White House generally stated that in recent weeks the volume of oil supplies from the Middle East has almost returned to normal levels, but analysts doubt it.
"So far, there are no signs that this week's escalation has significantly affected exports from the Middle East or led to a shortage in the oil market," said Norbert Rucker, head of economic research and advanced market research at Julius Baer bank. — The current rise in oil prices, apparently, is mainly due to the moods of market participants and concerns."
Citi Bank raised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil for the third quarter from $ 80 to $86 per barrel, explaining that the restoration of normal navigation in the strait takes longer than expected.
Gas
The price of gas in Europe cannot be stopped. During the week, deliveries for a month in advance from the Dutch TTF exchange went even higher — from $ 806 to $ 880 per thousand cubic meters.
On the one hand, the Iranian story continues. On the other hand, it is already September, and the EU storage facilities are still poorly filled - 65%. Theoretically, the European Commission can go to a meeting of countries The EU will also reduce the mandatory limits of gas accumulation for the heating season. However, this will not solve the main issue — the lack of fuel.
At the end of August, European companies began to increase LNG imports and storage stocks began to grow more actively. However, on the last day of summer, Norway began the traditional stage of preventive repairs at fields in the North Sea and the drop in its exports ate up all the growth in LNG supplies.
What's next? For example, in Germany, where storage facilities are only slightly more than half full, the association of UGS operators called on the authorities to remove fees and even provide government loans so that companies can increase gas injection. Berlin is still silent. It is obvious that prices are already extremely high and interventions in the market will provoke a new growth. Another way out is to expect that the winter will be warm.
As the main competitor of gas, coal could not stay away from the rise in gas prices. Deliveries for a month in advance from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam hub (ARA) increased in price over the week from $ 131.5 per ton to $138.4.