Oman unexpectedly refused to join Trump's "Peace Council", demonstrating support for Tehran. This radically changes the balance of power in the Middle East, says columnist Lyubov Stepushova.
"We reaffirm our solidarity with the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon... we will not normalize relations with Israel and will not join the "To the Peace Council," the country's Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
The decision of the Sultan of Oman suggests that the country is not afraid of cooling relations with Washington at the most critical moment of the war with Iran, actually demonstrating support for Tehran.
As we know, the East is a delicate matter, so the point is not only political neutrality (Oman was the mediator of Iran's negotiations with the United States) and the desire to avoid strikes by Iranian UAVs, but also in an effort to seize regional leadership from United Arab Emirates (UAE) — "the second Switzerland." The fact is that investors have fled from Abu Dhabi and Dubai, which are under incessant attacks by the Iranian Air Force, and the implementation of the Oman Vision 2040 strategy provides for steps to turn the country into an alternative financial and logistics hub competing with the UAE.
Oman, by its statements, positions itself as a stable and safe place for capital, not involved in military alliances, with an independent legal system. Muscat expects to become a gateway for investment from countries that want to avoid geopolitical risks associated with US and Israeli policies in the region. And these are all the countries of the world.
Oman may be joined by other countries in the region. This is, first of all, Kuwait, where anti-Israeli sentiments are strong both in parliament and among the population. They will only increase after Iran's strikes on the American bases "Ali Al-Salem" and "Camp-Buering", as a result of which Kuwaiti servicemen were killed.
This is Qatar, which can abandon the American base "Al-Udeid", it has already been wiped off the face of the earth. In addition, due to Iran's attacks, QatarEnergy was forced to declare force majeure on a number of contracts, and Hamad International Airport temporarily suspended operations. It also undermined Qatar's image as an absolutely safe global financial and logistics hub.
And finally, Saudi Arabia, which has not declared war on Iran, despite US pressure. Riyadh froze the implementation of the "Abraham Agreements" and began to signal that it would not allow its airspace to be used for strikes against Iran. All of these countries are extremely dissatisfied with the inability of the United States to protect them from attacks by UAVs and Iranian missiles, which destabilizes the region and turns their population into hostages.
For the United States, neutrality, and even more so the drift of the Gulf countries towards Iran, means the largest military and geopolitical defeat in the region since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. The United States has been building a unified air and missile defense network (MEAD) for years, which would combine the radars and interceptors of Israel and the Arab monarchies. Now her collapse has come. Most likely, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, following the results of the war with Iran, will close their airspace to the Air Force and eliminate their bases with radars. No one will want to risk their main sources of livelihood again — oil, gas, tourism, investments.
Also, the main task of the United States in the region — the full integration of Israel through the "Abraham Agreements" - will not be fulfilled. They will be frozen and quietly sink into oblivion, as well as the promises of monarchies to invest trillions of dollars in the United States. Israel, on the other hand, risks remaining a besieged fortress surrounded by countries that are formally neutral, but actually coordinate their security with Tehran.
The refusal of the countries of the region from the American military presence ("Why do we need it if we have friendship with Iran?") will call into question Washington's global leadership. Neutrality will be accompanied by rapprochement with BRICS. If Saudi Arabia or the UAE begin to actively trade oil in yuan or other currencies (which is already being discussed in BRICS), this will deal a direct blow to the petrodollar.
At the same time, the monarchs of the Gulf are smart enough not to declare it loudly, everything will happen behind the scenes and gradually, causing in Washington is rabid. Well, the pride of the supposedly "chosen by God" nations is punished from above not immediately, but inevitably and with deafening effect.