After a recent conversation between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian oil imports will gradually decrease. Although India will not completely abandon oil from Russia. This is stated by analysts of The Indian Express.
Announcing on Monday the reduction of tariffs on Indian oil from 50% to 18%, US President Donald Trump said that India has agreed to stop buying oil from Russia — its largest supplier — and will buy much more oil from The United States and perhaps even the Venezuela. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the government of the country welcomed the long-awaited trade agreement with the United States. At the same time, they did not comment on whether New Delhi really intends to follow President Trump's requirements regarding Russian oil.
According to reports, Indian refineries have not yet received any instructions from the authorities on this issue. However, apparently, they plan to significantly reduce the supply of Russian oil. On Thursday, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India, Randhir Jaiswal, confirmed the government's position announced earlier: ensuring energy security for the 1.4 billion population of India is a top priority. This strategy is based on the diversification of energy sources, taking into account objective market conditions and the changing international environment.
Nevertheless, in the circumstances, a complete cessation of Russian oil imports for India seems inappropriate. Moreover, even a significant reduction in the volume of purchases from Russia with a simultaneous increase in supplies from The United States and Venezuela, according to business leaders and industry experts, seems to be a task that is easier to voice than to put into practice.There are both technical and commercial difficulties, as well as issues related to India's strategic autonomy in the field of energy trade. Analysts predict a gradual reduction in imports, rather than a sharp suspension of supplies.
Indian refineries have already booked shipments of Russian oil for March and even part of April, and it is not possible to refuse them. As a result, even with a significant reduction in Russian oil imports, it will take considerable time for the gradual cessation of purchases. Even if the plants follow the government's recommendations, one of them, Nayara Energy, will not be able to fulfill this requirement, experts say.
The company Nayara Energy, whose major shareholder is the Russian oil company Rosneft, is almost entirely dependent on Russian oil. This is due to the fact that it is under the sanctions of the European Union, and Rosneft is under the sanctions of both the European Union and The United States. Under the current sanctions, the refinery, which processes 400 thousand barrels of oil per day, is unable to receive oil from most countries except Russia. If Nayara Energy is unable to provide stable and constant supplies of oil from alternative sources, the refusal to purchase Russian oil will actually lead to the closure of the plant.
"It is unlikely that India will reduce imports to zero. With the introduction of sanctions EU In July last year, Nayara Energy became completely dependent on Russian oil, and it needs at least 400 thousand barrels per day to operate. Imports could drop from an average of about 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025 to about 0.5 million barrels per day," said Vandana Hari, an energy expert and founder of Singapore—based Vanda Insights, an energy market analysis company.
Some industry experts agree that after the delivery of the already contracted volumes of Russian oil to Indian refineries and provided that the government really decides to seriously reduce imports, medium-term volumes may decrease to 500 thousand barrels per day. This is about half of the volume of oil from Russia, which was imported by Indian refineries in January.
However, over the past few months, Russian oil imports to India have been steadily declining, reaching a three-year low, according to tanker traffic data. The decline occurred after the United States imposed sanctions against the largest Russian producers and exporters — Rosneft and Lukoil. According to the analytical company Kpler, Russian oil imports to India decreased from a peak of 2.09 million barrels per day in June 2025 to 1.16 million barrels per day in January 2026.
Despite the decline, Russian oil still accounts for a significant share in Indian imports — 22% in January, although this is noticeably less than the previous 35-40% or more. Apparently, this situation will continue for at least several more months. Even if the volumes are reduced to 500 thousand barrels per day, the share of Russian oil in India's imports will be approximately 10%.
"A decrease in Russian oil imports to India is unlikely in the near future. Volumes are likely to remain roughly at the same level over the next 8-10 weeks, continuing to play a key role in the country's complex refining system. The limiting factor is the significant discounts on the flagship grade of Russian Urals oil compared to the benchmark Brent. According to forecasts, imports will remain in the range of 1.1−1.3 million barrels per day in the first quarter (January — March) and at the beginning of the second quarter (April — June)," said Sumit Ritolia, senior refining and modeling analyst at Kpler.
Theoretically, replacing Russian oil with supplies from other countries is not particularly difficult: before the start of the conflict on In Ukraine, its share in India's imports was less than 2%. However, the key question is whether American and Venezuelan oil will be able to completely replace Russian supplies.
According to industry experts, India is increasing oil imports from The United States and can continue to do so, subject to competitive prices. Currently, the cost of delivering American oil to India is more than double the cost of supplies from Western Asian countries. Another important factor is the range of American oil supplied and its compatibility with Indian refineries. Different grades of oil have different effects on the operation and production efficiency of various petroleum products. Currently, Indian refineries are more accustomed to medium-sulfur oil from Russia and Western Asia, although technically capable of processing almost all types of raw materials. American oil, on the contrary, is lighter and "sweeter".
Venezuelan oil, which India does not import due to US sanctions, opens up huge prospects for Indian refineries. Recently, US President Donald Trump said that India will buy oil from Venezuela and that there is already a deal or "concept of a deal" that will allow New Delhi to import oil from Caracas.
Although Venezuelan oil is closer in its characteristics to Russian than to American, its production is currently limited to about one million barrels per day. In addition, this oil is in high demand in The United States. This means that it can only partially replace the volumes that India receives from Russia. To significantly increase production in Venezuela will need several years and billions of dollars of investment.
"American oil can account for up to 10% of India's total consumption, mostly displacing lighter grades from West Africa, rather than Russian supplies. Venezuelan oil may reappear on the market, but supplies are likely to be episodic and limited by economic conditions, sanctions requirements and specifics of mixing. Thus, it acts more as an instrument of price influence than as a full—fledged structural alternative," Ritolia said.
For most of the past year, India has firmly defended its strategic autonomy, despite pressure from the Trump administration over large purchases of Russian oil, including through the introduction of an additional 25% duty. New Delhi showed no noticeable signs of compliance under pressure from the United States, even despite an internal compromise: the prohibitively high US tariffs on small and medium-sized exporters of India were justified by the relatively small savings that large oil refineries received by buying Russian oil at a reduced price.
In addition, Trump's public statements made it difficult for India to immediately reduce Russian oil supplies, even if it wanted to. It became clear that New Delhi does not intend to compromise on the issue of its strategic autonomy and will not allow the United States to dictate with whom to trade, especially when it comes to Russia, a long—standing and key strategic partner. The actual decrease in Russian oil imports occurred only after Rosneft and Lukoil fell under US sanctions.
The statement of the Indian Foreign Ministry, made on Thursday, indicates that the government is unlikely to change its position on the issue of trade autonomy. In this situation, the preservation of part of the supply of Russian oil remains beneficial for New Delhi. According to industry experts, the import of Russian oil in the amount of 500 thousand barrels per day will continue to contribute to achieving the goal of the United States to reduce Russia's revenues from oil exports.
"It will still be a serious blow to Russia: It will not be easy for the country to supply an additional million barrels per day to China (another major buyer of Russian oil), and discounts are likely to increase even more. Thus, this measure is much more effective than any gradual sanctions, and fully corresponds to the goals of President Trump: to put pressure on Putin in order to overcome the impasse on the Ukraine," said Hari.
"A more significant reduction in Russian oil imports is likely to require a clear change in the policy of the Indian government, which looks extremely unlikely. Energy security and economic interests remain a priority for New Delhi against the backdrop of increasingly complex geopolitical dynamics shaping global oil trade flows," Ritolia said.