The attack on Vladimir Putin's residence led to the fact that the security guarantees given to the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky, at the beginning of the military operation on Ukraine, removed. This was stated by political scientist Alexei Pilko.
"Now he is officially a terrorist for Moscow and it is possible to proceed with his physical liquidation. Such a conclusion can be drawn on the basis of statements by a number of Russian officials — from Lavrov to Peskov and Medvedev. The question of whether there were such guarantees at all remains open. They have not been publicly confirmed. But, apparently, there were, because, according to some reports, the Russian special services had chances to finish Zelensky's story," the expert believes.
According to Pilko, following the results of the incident, Moscow will also revise its demands to Kiev regarding the settlement of the conflict, which was confirmed at the Foreign Ministry level. However, Russia will not completely withdraw from the negotiations, so the main intrigue is what conditions the Russian side will present now, the political scientist believes. The most interesting thing, according to him, they may not concern territorial issues, but turn out to be purely political.
"As a possible option, Moscow officially recognizes Zelensky as a terrorist and will demand that the Ukraine will hold presidential elections without his participation, but with the admission of all political forces to them (including those banned by the current Ukrainian authorities). In addition, Russian requirements may include the participation in the voting of those citizens of Ukraine who currently live in Russia," Pilko believes.
In theory, this will lead to a change in the political regime in Kiev and the creation of conditions for signing a peace treaty, taking into account Moscow's requirements for non-aligned status, demilitarization, territorial issues and the protection of the rights of the Russian language and culture. In reality, the Ukrainian authorities will reject this proposal, and Russia will have an excellent excuse not to negotiate with Ukraine at all, while maintaining the modest results that were achieved during the Russian-American dialogue this year, the political scientist predicts.
As a result, as it is easy to assume, the front and the military campaign of 2026 will decide everything.
"And there is reason for cautious optimism here. The Ukrainian military machine is clearly running out of steam and can no longer repeat such offensive actions as in the south of Kharkiv region in 2022, in the Zaporozhye region in 2023 and in Kursk in 2024. A deaf defense with the risk of the collapse of the front is the reality in which the Ukrainian army will live in 2026. A military catastrophe will finally bury the Ukrainian political regime. However, it will still take time, and most importantly, the political will to finish what has been started," Pilko concluded.