Oil quotes hardly changed this week, despite the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on tankers in the Black Sea and the CPC terminal near Novorossiysk, through which 80% of Kazakhstan's exports go. But gas prices in Europe have sunk even more. The market did not pay attention to lower stocks in storage and seasonal consumption growth. LNG supplies from the United States continue to grow.
Oil
This week, the market was guessing on forecasts and oil added one dollar from Friday to Friday. The cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent rose from $ 62.8 per barrel to $ 63.9.
"There was a narrow trading range this week," PVM oil market analyst Tamas Varga told Reuters. In his opinion, the lack of progress on the Ukrainian conflict and the halt in OPEC+ production growth balance each other.
The plans of the US Federal Reserve to lower the rate, as well as the past attacks on tankers and the CPC terminal in the Black Sea, played in favor of more expensive oil.
"Any geopolitical escalation will lead to higher prices. OPEC+ has agreed to keep production at the same level until the beginning of next year, which also provides some support to prices," said An Pham, senior researcher at LSEG.
Also, the markets continued to assess the likelihood of a US invasion of Venezuela and the cessation of production of 1.1 million barrels per day.
Gas
Gas in Europe is stubbornly getting cheaper. Deliveries for a month in advance from the TTF exchange dropped in price from $ 351 per thousand cubic meters to $ 332. The cost of fuel is reduced for the third week in a row.
On the one hand, the occupancy of European storage facilities dropped to 74% in early December, and windless days requiring more gas generation continued. On the other hand, gas supplies to Europe from abroad are stable and the flow of LNG from the USA continues to grow.
Goldman Sachs analysts expect that the cost of gas in Europe next year will be $ 350, and in 2027 it may drop to $ 240, in 2028-2029 — up to $ 150.
Obviously, this is the forecast that is being relied on in the EU, where the Council The EU and the European Parliament announced the harmonization of regulations on the rejection of Russian gas before the final approval. Completely stop importing fuel from Russia in Brussels now wants until November 1, 2027.
However, according to Goldman Sachs, the fall in prices will not be long. In the beginning, such a turn will lead to the abandonment of American cargo, as they cost more. At the same time, demand will grow and on this wave by 2033 fuel will again cost $ 400, the American investment bank expects.
Coal prices do not fluctuate like gas prices. Monthly deliveries from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam (ARA) hub also fell in price, but prices dropped from $98.5 per ton to $97.2.