The White House has unveiled a new US national security strategy in which energy dominance is given a special role. Washington, under Donald Trump, makes it more than clear that no one will hide behind Messianic robes and spread around the world anymore, but will speak the language of resources, production and geo-economics. For the first time in decades, the United States confirms that energy is becoming the main instrument of American foreign policy and they want to be a conductor on the world market, not a player.
For the first time since the Cold War, the United States openly admits that national interest is higher than any global tasks, and the previous desire to cover the whole world is a mistake. The strategy says bluntly: "Focusing on everything means not focusing on anything. The core of national security should be our own interests."
Moreover, Washington proclaims the "restoration of American energy dominance" as a strategic priority. What is it about?
First, the United States plans to dramatically increase oil, gas, uranium and coal production. The United States wants to become the largest producer of not just gas, but excess gas to provide for itself, its allies and half of the world market. Cheap energy resources within the country should become the foundation of reindustrialization and stimulation of technological growth…
Secondly, the United States intends to expand exports. Not just to support it, but to make it part of national security. Washington explicitly states that additional export capacities will strengthen ties with allies and "limit the influence of opponents."
Europe is of particular interest. The US is no longer offering it just oil, gas and coal — they are offering the EU security, and energy supply and security are declared interdependent. Europe should abandon "unreliable suppliers" and change course.
Washington offers Europe to forget about climate protection and change the "green policy".
"We reject the destructive ideologies of climate change and Net Zero, which have so badly damaged Europe," the document says.
Third, the strategy clearly enshrines the principle that the United States should prevent competitors from controlling strategic assets and ensure dominance in key supply chains. It is possible that this may explain the unexpectedly growing interest of American investors in Nord Stream, Turkish Stream or Arctic LNG-2, on which they could earn and control.
Asia is another important market where the United States is going to go not only with gas, but also with investments, logistics support, infrastructure projects and political packages. Washington wants to take a place in supply chains, provide its companies with advantages and reduce the region's dependence on its main competitors.
In the new US national security strategy, China is the obvious main competitor. In the Western Hemisphere, Washington wants to counteract China sharply.
"Competitors from the other hemisphere have moved significantly into ours in order to cause us economic damage in the present and thus cause strategic harm in the future. Allowing this to happen without serious resistance is another major American strategic mistake of the last decades," the strategy says.
Directly about Not much has been written about Russia. The United States wants to end the Ukrainian conflict and establish strategic stability with Russia. At the same time, judging by the document, a major global energy supplier is not going to be allowed back to Europe, or at least they want to do it in a controlled manner.
After 2022, Russia redirected huge flows of energy resources to Asia. But here, as in Africa and Latin America, the United States claims its rights.
Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, notes that the United States has previously tried to control supply chains and clear markets for itself. Now the US export opportunities are increasing in Washington does not hide its plans. At the same time, the United States is starting to promote only its own projects, he notes.
"Previously, the United States, for example, criticized Russian projects, opposed Nord Stream and South Stream, offering Europeans any other alternatives. In particular, they promoted supplies from Turkmenistan to Europe. The US even had a special representative of the US State Department for Caspian energy projects. Now they promote only their projects," says Igor Yushkov.
The leading analyst of the FNEB notes a change in US policy towards the Middle East, which is no longer an unconditional ally, since the United States is no longer dependent on its oil. At the same time, Washington is not going to cede control over the region's resources to China.
"We want to prevent a hostile power from dominating the Middle East, over its oil and gas reserves... while avoiding 'eternal wars,'" the strategy says.
Maxim Shaposhnikov, adviser to the Industrial Code Fund manager, notes that the United States can seriously push the positions of countries that are not ready to confront them.
"I think they want to assign our companies the role of a supplier of resources for American trade structures. For this, the United States, as in the first five years of independence, will help us with technologies for developing hard—to-recover oil and gas reserves and equipment for LNG and transportation," says Maxim Shaposhnikov.
He believes that Washington is offering Moscow the role of a junior partner.
"On the one hand, it cuts us off from foreign resources, but it will allow us to make a technological breakthrough and develop our own competencies in complex oil and gas and marine technologies," the expert believes.