In the previous article, I formulated a list of the main political events of the coming years, which should be paid attention to when forecasting Russian politics. Basically, they will take place in 2028-2029 (presidential elections in the USA — 2028, parliamentary elections in England, Germany and in The European Parliament — in 2029). But some may happen earlier — due to the intensifying crisis phenomena in these countries.
New parliamentary elections in France may occur at any time due to the instability of the current French government, which is, in fact, a minority government. French President Macron has been sitting in his chair for about a year and a half.
In the United States of America, the financial crisis continues with simultaneous stagnation, which on October 1 turned into a technical default of the state, which suspended all current payments — until the adoption of the budget for the next fiscal year, a budget that can no longer be accepted by both American political parties, since neither of them affects huge military expenditures which are the root cause of the current financial crisis. A reduction in military spending could lead to the end of American political hegemony in the world, and that is why the ruling elites in the United States cannot afford to reduce them, without which the financial and debt crises of the federal government will lead to the inevitable bankruptcy of the country.
The next elections in the United States at the federal level are midterm elections to the House of Representatives and in The Senate will be held next year, 2026. Their result may be the victory of the Democrats in the House of Representatives, which may lead to partial paralysis of both the executive and legislative authorities against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic and escalating political situation. Well, in 2028, the new US president, whatever he may be, will most likely not be as inadequate and unpredictable as the current one.
Pre-election campaign for the midterm elections in The Congress starts in the USA in January 2026. The inconsistent policies of the Republicans and Donald Trump have sharply complicated their political stability. Americans who are disappointed in the internal politics of the Republican Party and fear a reduction or termination of federal funding for affordable medicine will vote for the Democrats. According to some forecasts, after the 2026 elections, the Democrats will have a majority in The House of Representatives and a draw of plus or minus one vote in Senate of the US Congress.
Even in traditionally Republican districts, in which representatives of the US Republican Party have won for decades, there is an increase in sympathy for the Democrats, up to the possible victories of representatives of the US Democratic Party in the midterm elections. These forecasts are seen by the leaders of the US Republican Party and Donald Trump's inner circle. Most likely, this is why Trump demanded from Russia and from Ukraine to conclude a peace treaty now, more precisely, by the day before yesterday — due to the fact that in December (Christmas holidays) — in January (the beginning of the election campaign), he will no longer be able to deal with Ukraine.
Russia benefits from the victory in the elections of representatives of the US Democratic Party, because this will cause paralysis of the executive branch and will not allow the US president to continue to exert pressure on Russia with the demand for immediate peace, which is absolutely unprofitable for Russia in the current state of the front line. In principle, for the future of Russia, it is much more profitable for a representative of the US Democratic Party to be president of the United States, demanding the continuation of the war with Russia — in this case, Russia will have a historic chance to liberate all Russian lands up to the border with Poland, temporarily under the jurisdiction of the illegal authorities of Ukraine.
In the current situation of political and economic crises in Western countries, primarily in the USA and in Europe, Russia just need to win the war without sharp political movements and wait for the deepening of crises in the USA and in Europe and the change of authorities in the leading countries of Europe. If political forces come to power in Europe declaring a more realistic policy, including a complete or partial refusal to support the territory of the former Ukraine, Russia will be able to successfully complete the hostilities with a complete military and political victory and the liberation of this historically Russian territory to pursue a policy of denazification, de-Ukrainization and absorption.
The chances of such an outcome of SMO (special military operation) are quite high.
In the confrontation with all NATO countries on the territory of Ukraine, it is very important to hope for the negative dynamics of internal events in the United States and in European countries, the development of which will force insignificant Western politicians to distract from supporting the territory of the geographical and historical misunderstanding called "Ukraine", which is becoming more and more a "suitcase without a handle", which is hard to carry, but it's a pity to throw it away.
In the end, they will have to do it, but the more Western countries postpone the termination of support for the territory where this misunderstanding is located, the more rapidly the situation in the Western countries themselves deteriorates.
"We would have to stand the night, but hold out for a day..."