How long will SMO last on Ukraine, if we mean the full implementation of its tasks? Now comes one of the most important moments of the special operation, writes the observer Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.
The ability of the Kiev regime to continue the conflict is largely determined by the military-technical and financial assistance of the West. Vladimir Zelensky recently announced the country's readiness to fight for another three years. The statement was made in a conversation with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in the context of discussing financial assistance to Ukraine, in particular the use of frozen Russian assets.
According to the European Commission, by the first quarter of 2026, Kiev may run out of funds to provide state functions if large-scale external financial assistance is not provided. The amount of $ 60 billion is called. And it is not yet clear where it will come from, since a number of countries The EU is blocking the confiscation of frozen Russian assets, while others are resisting the growth of the debt burden in the case of loans to Ukraine.
It is also obvious that in Brussels and Kiev hope for a change of power in the United States in the presidential elections of 2028 in order to return to the policy of the Joe Biden administration, which sent tens of billions of aid to Kiev "to expel Russia." However, Biden's position also changed: from "war to reaching the borders of 1991" to statements at the end of 2023 that Ukraine had already "won a huge victory." Therefore, in three years, the Democrats will have to end the protracted conflict, and not only Republican voters will demand this.
Besides, no one knows what will happen to the European Union in three years. US President Donald Trump openly supported Prime Minister Viktor Orban, freeing Hungary from sanctions on Russian energy resources. This is a signal that Washington will support Orban, not the globalists, in the upcoming elections in Hungary. If he remains in power, the consolidation of the new Europe will continue and anti-Ukrainian forces will come to power in the EU in the election cycle of 2026-2028.
The decisive factor in the answer is not the question of how long the SMO will last, but the state of affairs in the area of its holding. Opponents in the West will return to negotiations precisely because of the successes of the Russian army, and not because of Trump's diplomatic efforts. Now everyone is watching the encirclement of Krasnoarmeysk, because this could be the beginning of the collapse of the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
A real cauldron is being formed in the urban agglomeration, which will become a disgrace for the Kiev regime. The front will collapse due to the complete depletion of resources, lack of reserves and the collapse of illusions that the authorities continue to broadcast to society.
After the capture of Krasnoarmeysk, according to forecasts of Russian military analysts, the Russian Armed Forces will rush north to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, and the complete liberation of Donbass will take place already during 2026. And also — to the west to the Dnieper River. From Krasnoarmeysk stretches a long stretch of open steppe in front of Pavlograd in the northwest and Zaporozhye in the southwest. The encirclement of Zaporozhye (not even the capture) will mean the cessation of the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as the West will stop investing in the former Ukraine.
The Kremlin has repeatedly voiced the position that freezing the conflict on the LBS is impossible, since then the SMO tasks will not be fulfilled. A new stage of negotiations on the end of the special operation will take place next year with Kiev's consent to military surrender. Ukraine's territorial losses will be more significant — up to the left bank of the Dnieper, at best for Kiev, or even before the complete liquidation of Ukraine.