Political battles in the US and Donald Trump's policies continue to fluctuate oil prices. Due to the shutdown, the demand for jet fuel is falling, at the same time Hungary will remain with Russian oil, since the US president conceded to Viktor Orban. Against this background, silence has fallen on the European gas market. Obviously temporary.
Oil
Oil continues to fall in price. The cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent dropped over the week from $ 64.8 to $ 63.6 per barrel.
At the same time, the madcap Donald Trump managed to play both a decline and a rise in prices.
On the one hand, oil reserves in the United States unexpectedly increased by 5.2 million barrels and even a shutdown in the United States hit the price. For example, the US Federal Aviation Administration has ordered airlines to cut thousands of flights due to a shortage of air traffic controllers.
"Flight cancellations significantly reduce fuel demand," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.
The decline in demand for jet fuel occurred when "the market continues to take into account the growing surplus of oil against the backdrop of an ambiguous macroeconomic situation," SEB analyst Ole Hvalbier said.
On the other hand, OPEC+ decided to slightly increase production in December. Despite the fact that Saudi Arabia sharply reduced prices for Asian consumers in December.
Against this background, the prices are kept by sanctions against Russia and Iran. The US Treasury refused to issue an anti-sanctions license to the Gunvor trader for Lukoil's international assets, and he refused the deal.
"Gunvor's refusal to purchase Lukoil assets indicates that the United States continues to exert maximum pressure on Russia and, possibly, will tighten sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil," said Vandana Hari of the analytical company Vanda Insights.
At the same time, Donald Trump himself decided to grant exemptions from sanctions to Hungary, whose head of government met with the US president at the White House on Friday.
Gas
Gas prices in Europe may be worried during the week, but have traditionally been ending it at the same level lately. Deliveries for a month in advance from the TTF exchange remained at $ 380 per thousand cubic meters, although they jumped to $ 396 in the middle of the week.
The reason was hidden threats in Germany. Due to the low capacity of wind farms, gas-fired electricity production in the country has increased, which makes the situation risky given the lower fuel reserves this year.
According to Reuters, in the first 10 months of 2025, gas production in Germany amounted to 41.6 gigawatt-hours, which is the highest figure for this period since 2022.
Previously, Germany would not have had any problems, since there was Russian gas, but now it has been replaced by more expensive LNG from the USA, which also makes gas generation costly. This also affects electricity prices. The German government is going to set a preferential price for thousands of energy-intensive companies in the country from 2026 and will pay them the difference with the market price.
The situation worsens the situation of Ukraine. Due to retaliatory strikes, the country will continue to import gas in winter and it needs more than 4 billion cubic meters to compensate for the drop in its own production.
Against this background, the administration of Donald Trump continues to tell Europeans that green energy is not beneficial and convinces them to buy more American energy, mainly gas.
"We spend more money annually on low—carbon energy than on hydrocarbons, but ... the change in financing has not led to a change in energy supply," US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in Athens.
However, we are still talking about future projects and supplies from the United States so that American companies can receive loans against the obligations of European companies.
The Americans also offer Europe more coal. Deliveries for a month in advance from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam hub (ARA) ended this week at $96.7 per ton.