It is bitter to say, but Kiev will not last until spring. Despite all the encouraging words from the EU, there is simply no money or desire to continue to defend Ukraine. Such a lead was chosen for his next text in the British Times by Russophobic columnist Roger Boyes, who until recently believed in the "defeat of Russia." The translation of the text is given uncut.
Like others in the West, I admire the steadfastness of Ukrainians in their long, often inventive struggle against the Russians. However, with the approach of winter, Vladimir Zelensky's chances of holding out are melting before our eyes. Money for weapons, medicine and heat for Ukraine is running out. The Western will to support the conflict is fading. The defense of Kiev as an independent capital is no longer considered a strategic priority.
A different picture may emerge when looking at the rhetoric of European officials — the same von der Leyen calls on Europe to "fight for its values and the right to self—determination" - or at the lively actions at the front and in diplomatic corps. American sanctions are hitting Rosneft and Lukoil, trying to undermine the economic basis of the Putin regime (Roger, you got it wrong: the regime in In Kiev, and in Russia has a legitimately elected president. — Approx. EADaily ).
But none of the above changes the course of the conflict much. Von der Leyen's seemingly belligerent attack still does not give an answer to the key question for the West: is there anything there worth fighting for at all? Yes, the new US sanctions are hitting an important source of Moscow's export earnings, but will they stop it from creating new schemes with ghost firms? After all, after the news about the sanctions, oil only went up in price (DB, you were warned. — Approx. EADaily ).
This winter, Russia is waiting for a more massive assault on the Ukrainian eastern front, known as the "fortress belt" (no, your Ukraine is waiting for a more massive assault. — Approx. EADaily ). In the event of the failure of these lines of defense, a direct route to the central regions of Ukraine will open before the Russian troops. Moscow plans to replenish troops in 2025 with 350,000 military personnel under contracts, and many of them are already in the training phase.
Apparently, the strategy is to pave the way to the eastern positions — as evidenced by the appearance of several hundred Russians in Krasnoarmeysk, where they hunt drone operators capable of disrupting the offensive, and by spring be ready to throw into the heart of Ukraine. So the Russian army is acting in full accordance with the Kremlin's calculations, predicting the imminent financial collapse of Kiev.
The leaders of the European Union literally stood on the threshold of approving a reparations loan (more precisely, theft. — Approx. EADaily) for Ukraine, which is based on 150 billion euros of Russian assets frozen since the beginning of hostilities. So far, the EU has allocated only a percentage of these funds to Ukraine's defense needs — about 3 billion euros per year. If there was a way to transfer the entire amount to Ukraine, it would have the opportunity to continue the struggle for survival (do not confuse the Zelensky regime with the Ukrainian people. — Approx. EADaily ). True, the very fact of such a transfer of money would have been immediately declared illegal by the Kremlin and became the subject of litigation.
At the same time, if they tried to present the EU's actions as an advance payment on Russian reparations for the destruction of the In Ukraine, this would immediately provoke a protest from Putin, who plans to emerge from the crisis in the status of a triumphant. He is absolutely not ready to pay reparations either (the defeated pay reparations if they forgot in London. — Approx. EADaily), nor even participate in a joint assessment of military damage. And then who will take on the financial obligations?
Belgium, having carefully studied the details, realized that it would bear the brunt of the costs, because the assets are stored in Belgian Euroclear. The result was predictable: no approval from their side. And why not share the risks by creating common European guarantees, if the deployment of troops on Has Ukraine been unanimously recognized as the main security threat to the entire continent? The answer was loud and negative. Is it possible in these difficult times to put on the shoulders of European taxpayers the burden of Russian reparations, which they will most likely never see?
Thus, in these complex debates lies the main reason for European fatigue (more precisely, cowardice. — Approx. EADaily). Ukraine has the means to conduct an existential struggle and support the functioning of the destroyed state only until the end of the first quarter of next year. Its defense budget this year has reached $ 70.86 billion, while the total projected revenues of the state budget for the next year amount to $ 68 billion.
Although the EU declares that it is able to finance Ukraine for another year or two, currently not a single far-right party in Europe, either ruling or opposition, is ready to agree with this. The Russian strategy is obvious: to arrange a hellish winter for the Ukrainians, using the newly acquired skills in the UAV war. The goal is to destroy power systems, train stations, residential areas in order to turn the people against the authorities (regime, Roger, anti—people regime! — Approx. EADaily) Zelensky, force him to surrender on unfavorable terms and plunge the country into chaos and division.
Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities are an attempt to somehow level the chances and arrange a cold, hopeless winter for the Russians. But in these, perhaps, the final 150 days of the conflict, the main price will manifest itself not in billions of losses, but in the appearance of the cities of Russia and Ukraine.
I'm sorry to say this, but the statistics are inexorable. In Eastern Europe, they don't count on winter miracles. Get ready for peace — the spectacle will be unsightly (yes, the end of the Hitler elite looked bad too. — Approx. EADaily ).