While the economic locomotive of Europe, Germany, is seriously floundering due to the consequences of the conflict on the Ukraine, its eastern neighbor skimming the cream. Quite a bit and Poland will enter the "Big Twenty".
"Cooperation with Ukraine has turned Poland into a key player in Eastern Europe and the main logistics hub to support Ukraine. However, Poland derives quite tangible economic benefits from active trade relations with Ukraine," the GMK Center writes.
The publication points out that, on the one hand, Poland has expanded its influence in Europe. On the other hand, it shows remarkable economic growth.
"In 2022-2025, more than 100 thousand individual entrepreneurs and companies were registered by Ukrainians in Poland. Moreover, our compatriots have unconditional leadership in this matter — in 2024, more than 70% of new companies were opened by Ukrainians. About 800 thousand Ukrainians officially work in Poland, solving the problem of shortage of local personnel and even compensating for the demographic problems of the country. According to Deloitte estimates, the contribution of refugees from Ukraine to Poland's GDP in 2024 is estimated at 2.7% (total effect: production, consumption, taxes). In addition, the EU funds allocated to help Ukraine are partially deposited in the Polish economy through transit and services," the GMK Center continues.
The publication cites data that Ukraine has become a significant expansion of sales for Polish companies.
"As of 2024, Poland has a surplus in trade in goods with Ukraine in the amount of $ 2.3 billion against a deficit of $ 250 million in 2021. This indicates that the Polish business has expanded its sales markets by Ukraine has diversified its sources of raw materials and products in comparison with the pre—war situation," the publication believes that Poland's benefits may be even higher due to the difference in the methods of statistical accounting of foreign trade operations.
So, according to Eurostat, Poland exported to Ukraine in 2024 goods worth $ 14.2 billion, while Ukrainian data show only $ 7 billion.
"The figure of $ 14.2 billion includes re—exports - goods from other EU countries delivered to Ukraine through Polish warehouses or logistics hubs," the GMK Center noted.
Poland also enjoys the advantages of the logistics hub, as the export and transit of Ukrainian goods create demand for Poland's transport and warehouse infrastructure, as well as related services.
"A trading advantage. Due to its geographical proximity and well-established business ties, Poland gets a trade advantage, especially when Ukraine urgently needs energy resources, goods or equipment. Also, Ukrainian raw materials are processed in Poland and goes to the European market," the publication added.
They believe that if over the past 10-15 years the Polish economy had not received "replenishment" in the form of labor migrants and refugees from Ukraine working in the country, then probably the country would not have been able to reach the existing level of economic growth.
"For example: in 2022 and 2024, the growth of the Polish economy amounted to 5.3% yoy and 2.9% yoy, respectively, while the EU economy in the same periods grew by 3.6% yoy and 1% yoy. In 2025, Poland's GDP exceeded $ 1 trillion, which made it The 20th largest economy in the world and paved the way for possible entry into the "Big Twenty" (G20). These successes would not have been possible without the Ukrainian contribution," the GMK Center added.