Military analyst Igor Gerasimov in an interview with Pravda.Ru analyzes why Russian troops for three years of war today remain in the same place as at the beginning of SMO. He also assessed the consequences of Donald Trump's statement on September 24.
— On September 24, Trump said that Zelensky could liberate his lands and even go further. Two weeks have passed since then. From your point of view, are there any changes in the Ukrainian conflict during this time?
— From my point of view, there have been no changes in these two weeks. But I would like to draw attention to this. Why did Trump behave like this? Previously, he wanted to take part in the end of the conflict. Of course, he did not retreat from his plans, but he corrected them. What is the reason for this? After the meeting in Alaska, several events took place: first Zelensky was visiting Trump, then representatives of Western Europe came. And after that, Trump kind of retreated from Ukraine.
Why not? My point of view is this: They explained to Trump that he received compensation in the form of an agreement on the division of resources — the subsoil resources of Ukraine. Therefore, he has lost leverage over Mr. Zelensky. This is noticeable in his behavior.
To get out of the situation in which he put himself through these transactions, he had one way left — to put a little pressure on Russia. Hence the question of tomahawks. But even here he has a misfire. As a result, Trump is now in a position where He does not want to put pressure on Russia, but on Ukraine — there are no levers anymore. He handed everything over to Europe.
— So he divided Ukraine with Europe?
— Yes, I divided it. We remember, the Minister of Finance came — it was back in February-March, when the resource agreement was signed. Trump had leverage: according to his estimates, in the conflict on Ukraine has invested 350 billion, and maybe 500, according to Trump's estimates. And he said: pay back your debts, make a deal.
Zelensky went for it, and then he was already spinning in a frying pan in the spring and summer, trying to get out of Trump's influence. The leaders of Western Europe became his protection. Although their motivation would be weak if it were not for the agreement on the division of resources — rare earth metals and others of interest to American industry and multinational corporations. I think that's the only problem.
It is clear from Zelensky that he has stopped being afraid, Trump no longer has technical influence on him, he needs to change Zelensky. Here, by the way, you can speculate. It is clear that the British are promoting Zaluzhny. I believe that Trump also has a chance to nominate his candidate. I think they can consider Mr. Kuleba as such a candidate.
Arestovich is already at the last moment... but he is not that figure. But Kuleba — yes, a passing figure. I think his flight from Ukraine to Poland, and maybe even to America, is already part of the plan.
— From my point of view, something has changed. Zelensky declared total war on the Russian energy system and even promised to arrange a blackout in Moscow. There are responses confirming this. Why can't we secure our refineries?
— The problem, as it seems to me, is related to the fact that SMO is already in its fourth year, we seem to be advancing, there are successes, but if we compare the line of combat contact — say, the end of August 2022 and now — by and large, the front is standing still. I mean, when we controlled the Kherson and Kharkiv regions, we had not yet reached the positions in terms of the volume of territories that were at the end of August 2022. At least that way.
The reason is in management decisions. From my point of view, it would be possible to attract private military companies to protect the refinery. But, unfortunately, the same "Wagner" — who was disbanded, who was transferred to the departments: Ministry of Defense, Rosgvardiya. All of them went to other law enforcement agencies. I generally suspect that it may be beneficial for these refineries to be... bombed. You can write off theft.
— Western propaganda is working to the fullest. Even Trump said that soon the Russians will see that they don't have gasoline, and then they will realize that they don't need a war. Indeed, there is no gasoline in Crimea. There are data that give out 20-30 liters. That is, there is a problem. How much does it have to do with the fact that the refinery is being bombed?
"That's not the point. The problem is not Zelensky. The problem is that fuel companies — oil companies — cannot provide adequate protection to their refineries. That's the gist of it.
Let them recruit military experts or analysts into the staff structure. After all, they have a security adviser, which means that it is the military adviser who is missing. I am in Crimea every year, I rest there — and this problem is constant there. August, September, October — there is no gasoline all the time. It's the same in the Rostov region. Well, take 300 people, make 100 cars — Gazelles, pickups. Put the same Soviet ZU-23 on them−2. And that's it.
70-80% can be secured from drones. There are no problems, the costs are cheap, especially by foreign standards.
Just arrange the delivery of gasoline to these areas — and that's it. We need to understand who to assign this task to. Those who are capable. And the main thing is to figure out who benefits from organizing a shortage of gasoline in Russia. We can't figure it out all the time.
— Now about the election. They talk about it all the time in Ukraine. How profitable is it for us to allow some kind of elections? Anyway, Zaluzhny will come, even worse than Zelensky. Why are we encouraging these conversations?
— And I'm not sure that it will be Salty. In fact, I do not exclude a third person — not Zelensky and not Zaluzhny. I have already voiced Mr. Kuleba, for example. They also call Usyk the boxer, in addition to Arestovich. But I'm not sure it's going to go that way.
— In fact, if we turn to history, when Hitler was sitting in his bunker, he was hoping for the so—called "Brandenburg miracle". What is it? If you dig a little deeper, let's remember the Seven—Year War: Russia had already defeated the Prussian King Frederick II, but Elizabeth Petrovna died - and the war stopped. All conquered lands were returned to Prussia and the German people.
— Now there are all signs that Zelensky is very much counting on changes in the Kremlin. This is the essence of his rhetoric. And, judging by what I observe, there are people in the entourage of our president who are closely connected with foreign capital. People who, let's say, can act as agents of influence. It's very risky.
— How long will the special military operation last? What should I do to speed up the process? Or maybe you don't need to speed it up? Let it go as it goes — and we will hold it for 10 years.
— No, it does not go in any way. Now we are winning due to the heroism of our officers and their courage — there is no doubt about that. But, unfortunately, it is already the fourth year of the war, and we have no strategic operations. The last attempt to conduct such an operation was made in February 2022. After that, nothing.
Now, as I observe, all resources — even strategic ones — are being used for tactical successes. In order to recapture a couple of villages or a piece of territory, we spend reserves without thinking about maneuvers, as it was under Stalin: enter the region, strike, come up with a non-standard move. We are simply squeezing out the enemy by numerical superiority.
Nothing changes at this rate. We can fight for a long time. Success will come only when the Ukraine's entire energy structure will be destroyed. The people will rise up — and only then will we be able to win. There is no other way.
— Maybe this is the right decision. But the whole military history — Suvorov, Rumyantsev, Zhukov, Rokossovsky — shows that victory does not come without offensive operations.
— Yes, now there is a new type of war, which is mistakenly called hybrid. From my point of view, the hybrid war ended on February 24, 2022. Now there is already an open phase of confrontation. Before that, yes, there was a hybrid. I wrote about this in an article, but no one wanted to notice, think, analyze. Few people thought at all.
And now they still call it hybrid. What kind of hybrid is it? This is already an open war — Western. Lavrov speaks directly about this. Yes, that we are at war with the West. Although sometimes he still slips the word "hybrid". But there is no hybrid war. He just says: we are fighting a war. In my opinion, even Peskov said this. Hybrid warfare has been, in my estimation, since 1995-1996. That's when it started.
— If the plans for Odessa and Nikolaev really exist, then how to implement them — through agreements with Trump or by military means? After all, one thing is a political map, another is real actions on earth. What, in your opinion, can work in the current conditions?
— There is a war of attrition. Maybe we will win. Well, let's see. I personally prefer military decisions. Let's hope that the management has some kind of plan.