In many regions of Russia, there is a shortage of 95 gasoline and an increase in fuel prices. Why is gasoline getting more expensive, how are refinery repairs, sanctions and damping payments affected? About this Pravda.Ru was told by the expert of the National Energy Security Fund Igor Yushkov.
— The latest data on gasoline is alarming. There is a shortage of the 95th, in a number of cities there is almost none, the price reaches 70 rubles per liter. The record for the 92nd has also been updated on the stock exchange: the wholesale price exceeded 73 thousand per ton. Is it possible to talk about the fuel crisis and how deep is it?
—Yeah." The current situation can be called a fuel crisis. But it is important to divide the reasons into two parts: fundamental economic, tactical, and recent ones. Fundamentally, the crisis was caused by the situation with the economy of companies and the budget. What happened?
Damper payments decreased by about 46% in 8 months of this year. A damper is a refund by the state of part of taxes to oil companies from the budget in the amount of the difference between the external price of fuel and the internal price that the state wants to see. Once a year, the state sets an indicative price for gasoline and diesel within the country. Oilmen receive the difference from the budget. In 2025, world prices for oil and petroleum products decreased compared to 2024: if earlier oil was traded in the range of 70-80 dollars, now it is more likely 60-70.
At the same time, the ruble strengthened. As a result, the ruble difference between external and internal prices decreased, and payments on the damper fell by 46%.
The same situation was in 2023. Then there was a threat that oil companies would reduce payments on the damper by 50%. As a result, gasoline prices went up sharply, the decision was revised, and nothing happened to the damper. And now the reduction of payments has really happened. This pushes oil companies to get what they didn't get through the damper through the market, which fundamentally pushes prices up.
But tactical stories are an increased demand, excitement. We saw price records in August, when fuel consumption in the civilian sector traditionally increases. People actively go on vacation, travel a lot by car. Since the time of Covid, domestic tourism has only been growing, and with it consumption volumes.
Unscheduled repairs at Russian refineries were added to this. Now there are also damages as a result of strikes by Ukrainian drones. But the price increase began even before Ukraine stepped up attacks on refineries — this is the story of August. Nevertheless, both repair work and drone strikes are pushing oil prices higher and higher.
— Why did the 95th gasoline disappear?
— It's not that we don't produce enough of it — there are enough volumes. The problem is that it disappears at the gas stations of independent companies. The fuel market is divided into two parts: gas stations of vertically integrated companies — which have production, refineries and their own network, independent filling stations that buy fuel from the former through the stock exchange.
When in August the 95th gasoline went up in price on the stock exchange, independents bought it at a high price. In order not to go into the red, they tried to sell more expensive, but the FAS came with a check and ordered to lower prices, referring to the fact that vertically integrated prices are lower. As a result, the independents traded at a loss and simply stopped selling. Hence the shortage.
Plus, delivery interruptions are added to this — especially in the border regions, where strikes also hit fuel storage facilities.
— Last year, when there was a shortage of gasoline, the government banned exports. Can this measure work?
— The export ban does partially improve the situation, but not dramatically. In a typical year, about 90% of gasoline went to the domestic market, and only 10% — for export. In summer, when domestic consumption is higher, the share of exports was even smaller.
Now that exports have been banned for August and September, additional volume has entered the stock exchange, but it has not been able to repay the high demand. Prices were rising, strikes on refineries began, stock market players panicked, bought up even more actively — and drove the cost up themselves.
In addition, part of the refinery went to forced repairs, so there is no surplus of gasoline in the country.
— Is it possible to talk about a large-scale shortage of gasoline in the country?
— Gasoline in Russia is allowed to sell only with a standard not lower than Euro-5. But if there is a physical shortage, they may temporarily allow the production and sale of Euro-4 and Euro-3 class fuel. This quality of gasoline can be produced more and cover part of the shortage. In general, there is no shortage on a national scale yet — enough gasoline is produced. But the trends are negative.
First of all, independent gas stations have problems: it is economically unprofitable for them to trade at high exchange prices, and the Federal Antimonopoly Service does not allow to raise the cost on the columns.
In addition, vertically integrated companies began to sell less fuel through the exchange, leaving it for their own networks. The trend is not good, but it is premature to say that this is a full-scale nationwide fuel shortage.
— Why don't oil companies strengthen the protection of refineries from drone strikes? Many experts believe that large oil companies do not want to invest in the air defense system, because it is profitable for them to receive insurance payments from companies and put the price of their loss in the cost of gasoline. Do you share this approach?
— I may be the devil's advocate, but I'm on the side of companies. They do what they can: they put up chain-link nets, build piles from the ground, strengthen structures. But they cannot buy air defense systems — this is a monopoly function of the state.
Companies do not have the right to purchase weapons from the military-industrial complex or directly transfer money to the army. The maximum is a contract with the Rosgvardiya, but it does not have heavy air defense systems. Therefore, the protection of refineries is the task of the state. It is it that has a monopoly on defense, and for this reason companies pay taxes.
— What can oil companies really do to compensate for losses?
— Insurance payments rarely cover the damage in full. In addition, after the first strike, insurance is sharply more expensive. Since 2022, there is a ban on the supply of equipment from the USA and Europe for the repair and modernization of refineries. Therefore, even domestic equipment has become more expensive — there is a queue for it.
Naturally, companies try to include these costs in the price of fuel. Processing margins have fallen, profits are less. Repairs are becoming more expensive, and without strikes, the situation has become more complicated due to sanctions. But the CEO of any, even a state-owned company, is obliged to show profit. To work at a loss means to immediately get the label of an ineffective manager and lose the post. It's a capitalist system, whether we like it or not.
— Is it possible to stabilize prices by importing gasoline, as it was with eggs? For example, to buy, import gasoline from friendly countries, is there an opportunity to expand supplies?
— If we talk about options for eliminating the deficit, then first of all we are talking about gasoline. The situation with diesel is different: half is exported, half is to the domestic market, so the problem is not so acute. In retail, diesel prices have increased by about 2.5% since the beginning of the year, with inflation of 4%. But gasoline has risen in price by more than 7%. These are completely different stories, so we should talk more about gasoline.
There are several options: temporarily reduce the ecological class of fuel by allowing gasoline to be sold below the Euro-5 level. This will increase production. Import from Belarus. Refineries there are underloaded due to sanctions: they used to be supplied to Europe, now they process less and export via Russia to more distant markets. We can supply oil, and take oil products, paying only for processing.
There are methods on how to replenish the domestic market, and the Belarusian option has been discussed for a long time. But while at the stage of elaboration, they are not really applied. There is no need yet, but it is worthwhile to calculate routes, volumes and conditions in advance in order to quickly fill the deficit if necessary.
— When will the rise in gasoline prices affect the cost of food and consumer goods? When do you expect the so-called fuel inflation?
— It is difficult to single out what makes goods more expensive. I would not expect a jump in inflation in the whole country due to the increase in fuel prices. Diesel plays a key role, since all major transportation and agriculture are tied to it. Here the situation is more stable: about 4%.
But gasoline has been out of the inflation corridor for the second year in a row. In retail, it has risen in price by more than 7%, which is higher than the level of general inflation. But it is unlikely that this will greatly spur the growth of prices for essential goods. There is even a definite plus for the state: the reduction of payments under the damper has reduced the potential budget deficit.
That is, gasoline is an inflationary factor, but not a critical one. Without its rise in price, it would be easier for the Central Bank to reduce inflation, but the rise in fuel prices will not give a global boost.