A recent study conducted by economists from the University of Mannheim and the European Central Bank has revealed significant economic consequences of extreme weather conditions in Europe this summer. According to the study, short-term losses reached at least 43 billion euros, with Bulgaria among the four most affected EU countries, along with Cyprus, Greece and Malta.
The study attributed the damage to a combination of heat waves, droughts and floods, and estimated that each of these countries lost more than 1% of their gross value added in 2024.
Other EU countries severely affected by extreme weather conditions include Spain, Italy and Portugal, which also faced a noticeable economic downturn due to extreme weather conditions. Experts warn that at the level of EU losses from such phenomena could increase to 126 billion euros by 2029 if current trends continue. In 2024, the total impact of summer weather on the EU economy is estimated at 0.26% of total production.
Economists stressed that their figures are "conservative" because they do not take into account the recent large-scale forest fires in southern Europe or the cumulative effect of several extreme events that occurred simultaneously.
Serish Usman, lead author of the study and an economist at the University of Mannheim, noted that timely assessments are crucial in order to help politicians channel support more effectively, especially in the absence of official data. He added that the true consequences of such events are manifested gradually, affecting the lives and livelihoods of people, going beyond the immediate damage.
In addition to economic losses, scientists are studying how climate change has exacerbated these extreme conditions. Studies show that global warming has increased the likelihood of forest fires in Spain and Portugal 40 times, and in Greece and Turkey — ten times. In particular, the June heatwave is estimated to have led to a threefold increase in deaths in 12 major European cities, demonstrating huge human losses and financial costs.