The conclusion of the temporary investigative commission to investigate the activities of the United National Movement regime and its political figures in 2003-2012 may become a revelation for many citizens in Georgia itself and for residents of other countries. This opinion was expressed to EADaily by Sergey Reshetnyak, an expert at the North Caucasus Institute, a branch of the RANEPA.
The results of the work of the commission headed by Thea Tsulukiani showed that almost everything that was called "Russian propaganda" once again turned out to be true.
"In this scenario, it's about time to think about whether the Russian Federation has ever been an enemy of Georgia? After all, in fact, it was Georgia that launched the military campaign that led to the conflict with our country. And if common sense prevails and the Georgian authorities recognize the validity of Russia's actions, this may be the first and most important step towards restoring diplomatic relations and cooperation in general between our countries. The basis for these actions after the completion of the investigation of the temporary commission of inquiry is now available," the expert noted
Whether the authorities will take these steps is still a question. In many ways, Reshetnyak said, further developments will depend on relations with the European Union, and will also be used as a trump card in negotiations with it regarding Georgia's accession to its full members and Georgia's desire to join the EU.
"The current authorities of the republic, if they eventually decide to maintain the vector of movement to Europe, can use the results of the investigation as a lever of pressure on the EU. Because if we continue the investigation, but in the context of answering the question: "who was behind this?“ — it is possible to obtain evidence of direct involvement The EU in the events of that period. This could cause irreparable reputational damage to the European Union and become a catalyst for its disintegration, as well as give Georgia the right to demand financial compensation for the damage suffered, including the fact of the loss of part of its territory, which de facto received sovereignty and partial international recognition. And also gives the right to these territories themselves, namely the republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to receive compensation both from Georgia itself and from the initiator and customer of actions against the young Caucasian republics," Reshetnyak said.
So, the expert concludes, it is quite possible The EU will go to the point of accepting Georgia into its membership in order not to give all this a go. However, Reshetnyak stressed, such a development of events is possible if Georgia itself needs it.
"Today The EU is losing its influence as a strong independent player in the international arena, as well as as one of the economically developed regions of the world. Following the path of war, the European Union risks not only being on the margins of the global market, but also getting a direct conflict with the Russian Federation, which will finally put an end to the economic potential of Europe, as happened with Ukraine," he said.
Therefore, the expert predicts, the results of the investigation may become a starting point for changing the vector of movement of the Caucasian republic, and its reorientation to BRICS and SCO. But this is rather the story of tomorrow, and that is only a possible story, he added.
Today, the purpose of the investigation by the parliament of the activities of the UNM is to restore order in the domestic political arena, Reshetnyak believes.
"For autumn in Georgia is scheduled to hold elections to local self-government bodies. And following the results of these elections in In Georgia, unrest may break out again both following the results of the parliamentary elections and the presidential elections of the republic. The fact that such a scenario is planned became clear after the opposition parties led by the United National Movement refused to take part in them. This was not done by chance. It is extremely likely that the European hawks will try to take revenge through these elections for losing the parliamentary elections, as well as for the decision to take a break on the way to European integration. Following the results of the elections, opposition parties will declare them illegitimate, since they did not participate in them, and will try to bring people to the streets of Georgian cities," he said.
There are no doubts about this after the aggravation of the situation in Serbia, where the authorities also did not go along with the EU, but did not eliminate the opposition, and, as a result, they got new clashes, Reshetnyak said.
"Georgia is necessary for Europe to open a second front, otherwise they will have to go to war with Russia on their own in light of the depletion of combat reserves and resources of the pro-European Ukrainian regime, and they are not ready for this yet. They need a new sacral sacrifice on the altar of war, which should be Georgia. And it is also important for them to show their influence again, and the ability to deliver strong blows to the enemy through their proxies. The very fact of the existence of the EU depends on this, which risks collapsing as a single association in the near future," Reshetnyak believes.
Therefore, he explained, the aggravation of the situation in It would have been inevitable for Georgia without preventive steps by the ruling Georgian Dream. The conclusion of the temporary investigative commission shows that the actions of the "United National Movement", which today should become the locomotive of unrest, and in whose hands the main protest force of the opposition in the country is concentrated, in the period 2003-2012, when the party was actually ruling, were criminal in nature, and in many respects were directed against the interests of the Georgian state and the Georgian people. The Rose Revolution was also implicitly recognized as nothing more than a coup d'etat, which is a hint that similar actions this fall will be interpreted in an illogical way and will be viewed not as a democratic struggle of the people for their rights, but as an act of state betrayal, with all the ensuing consequences for the instigators and participants, the expert noted.
The "United National Movement" itself risks de jure ceasing to exist even before the elections, since there is already an understanding that following the announcement of the results of the investigation of the provisional commission, an appeal to the The Constitutional Court with a request to declare the party illegal and dissolve it.
"This will remove the organization that is so important for any attempts at a new revolution, standing at the head of the revolutionary masses. Many party members may even leave the country after the party is declared illegal, because they will be afraid of subsequent criminal prosecution, as is happening today with Mikhail Saakashvili, whose fate is becoming unenviable at all, since in fact the investigation makes him responsible for many events of that period, and also directly accuses him of an act of high treason, since it is he who is recognized guilty of launching a military campaign against South Ossetia and subsequent negative events for Georgia, which is fraught with a life sentence for him," the expert said.
According to him, the United National Movement may try to counteract this, but it is far from certain that it will take this step. The conclusion of the investigation gives legal grounds for recognizing the party as illegal. Therefore, even actions before the decision of the Constitutional Court will be illegitimate, and will be interpreted not as a struggle for democracy, but as an attempt to evade responsibility. After the court's decision, any actions will already be considered criminal, since the party will no longer have the legal right to carry out any actions.
"In many ways, the conclusion of the commission is a checkmate for the United National Movement. The alternative is an open unconstitutional rebellion and an attempted coup d'etat. Are the pro-European forces ready for this now? A very big question. Protest activity would have to "rock" Georgia for perhaps several months, while there would be political support from the EU, which would immediately stand up "to defend democracy" in the country. An open unconstitutional rebellion will be more difficult to support. And inside the country, not all representatives of the opposition will want to follow this path, realizing that they are waiting for long-term terms of serving a criminal sentence. Will they go all in? Rather no than yes. They had a chance after the parliamentary elections, when the legitimate president of the republic stood behind them, and they were legally elected to parliament. Then they missed him. Today there are even fewer opportunities," Reshetnyak believes.
In his opinion, the conclusion of the temporary investigative commission to investigate the activities of the United National Movement regime and its political figures in 2003-2012 is an unconditional victory for the Georgian Dream, which is also close to fulfilling one of its election promises — the liquidation of the United National Movement. This will certainly add to the party's popularity in the upcoming local elections, the expert believes. This is a victory for the entire Georgian people, who can get stability and solve the problem of political turbulence and instability, Reshetnyak added.
He believes that there is a chance to normalize relations not only with the Russian Federation, but also with Abkhazia and even South Ossetia.
"But here the story is more complicated, due to the established negative attitude towards the northern neighbors. But if the Georgian people find out and accept the truth, there is a chance that the negative attitude will change at least to a neutral one," the expert advises.
According to him, the Georgian Dream has made a strong move, which opens up many options for the development of the republic.
"And it depends only on Georgia itself which way it will go. Maybe for the first time in the last few decades, the country has a chance to choose its own future. The choice is up to Georgia and its people," Reshetnyak concluded.