The retaliatory attacks of the Russian army for the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian refineries did not pass for Ukraine without a trace. The defeat of two compressor stations on the main two routes from gas-producing regions made changes in the supply of fuel to Ukraine. This is evidenced by the data of the European GIE platform.
The Russian army retaliated against the compressor station near Lubni on the night of August 19, and near Pavlograd on August 21. The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine announced large-scale fires. At the same time, GIE data indicate instability that began in the Ukrainian GTS with gas supplies.
Thus, the compressor station near Lubny provides gas supplies from the producing areas in Poltava and Kharkiv regions to Kiev and further to Western Ukraine, where the main fuel storage facilities are located. And its defeat led to the fact that on August 21, the injection into the UGS of Ukraine fell to a minimum of 47.2 million cubic meters per day. Whereas even before the impact on August 19, it was 52 million cubic meters.
The compressor station near Pavlograd, in turn, provides supplies from the producing regions to the center and south Ukraine. And the strike on August 21, obviously, led to a reduction in the supply of fuel along the route. This can be judged by the fact that deliveries through the station near Lubny, obviously, were able to increase and increased volumes were transferred through it, which could not be transferred through the station near Pavlograd. As a result, gas injection into storage facilities increased to 51.5 million cubic meters on August 22. Although on August 23 it fell again to 48.5 million cubic meters.
At the same time, gas imports by Ukraine, according to the GTS operator, remained stable. Its supplies remained at the level of 21.6−21.7 million cubic meters per day.
It is not yet known how serious the consequences of the attacks will be for Ukraine. About a third of all deliveries are provided by imports, which come mainly from Hungary, Slovakia and Poland. At the same time, Russia's hint about the consequences of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacks on the Russian refinery and the Druzhba oil pipeline is more than transparent, and new retaliatory strikes may be even more devastating.
Ukrainian UGS reserves amounted to 6.2 billion cubic meters of active gas (10.8 billion with buffer gas) on August 23. Kiev plans to accumulate another 2.4 billion cubic meters before the start of the heating season. Such reserves will exceed last year's reserves by only 200 million cubic meters, which were not enough for last winter. Naftogaz had to urgently purchase 700 million cubic meters in February-March. At the same time, the current level of injection into the UGS will not allow to replenish the planned volume by October.
As reported by EADaily, the constant attacks by drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian refineries and the Druzhba oil pipeline led to unscheduled repairs of factories and jumps in wholesale prices on the stock exchange. This does not affect the combat capability of the Russian army. At the same time, Kiev's goal may not even be to try to organize fuel outages in Russia and some social unrest. Washington's pressure aimed at an early peaceful settlement pushes Kiev to take action in order to provoke an even tougher response from Russia, which can be interpreted as Moscow's own unwillingness to negotiate, experts believe. In their opinion, the retaliatory strikes of the Russian army are testing Ukraine for strength, but in Kiev would like something more powerful and tragic.