Russian President Vladimir Putin got what he had been seeking since January — a one-on-one meeting with American leader Donald Trump without the presence of Vladimir Zelensky to present his arguments and conclude a deal on Ukraine. It is reported by The New York Times.
For the President of Russia, this is an opportunity not only to put an end to the war on Ukraine on its own terms, but also to split the Western security alliance, the newspaper writes.
"It was a very good week for Putin. He has taken himself out of a position of considerable vulnerability. He turned this whole process into something that more or less exactly meets his needs," said the professor of Russian politics at the King's College London Sam Green.
At the same time, tensions between Washington and Kiev have arisen again, the newspaper notes. On Saturday, Zelensky said that the Constitution of Ukraine does not allow Kiev to negotiate the alienation of territories.
Few analysts believe that Putin will be satisfied with ending the war only if the territories are transferred. He made it clear that, among other things, he wants to get an official promise that Ukraine will not join NATO or any other Western military alliances, will not deploy Western troops on its territory and will not be able to build up armed forces that threaten Russia, which, they say, "makes Kiev constantly vulnerable."
Putin will arrive at the summit on Friday in Alaska, pursuing various scenarios, according to the director of the Carnegie Eurasian Center in Russia — Eurasia in Berlin Alexander Gabuev*.
These, in his opinion, include a profitable deal with Trump, which the US president successfully imposed on Ukraine, or a profitable deal with Trump, which Zelensky refuses, as a result of which the United States is withdrawing from Ukraine, Gabuyev said*. The third option is that Putin will continue the conflict for another 12-18 months, counting on the fact that "Ukraine will run out of soldiers faster than the Russian military economy will run out of steam."
Putin understands that Trump is ready to offer things that few American leaders would ever consider, which could help Russia split Ukraine and split the Western alliance, the publication says. Such a wedge could be Trump's recognition of the territories occupied by Russia, said Sam Green.
"Trump is a great opportunity for him. I think he understands that. But at the same time, he is not ready to pay the price for the fact that Ukraine is slipping away forever," Gabuyev added*.
The leaders of Russia and the United States came to the summit with different goals, said Stefan Meister, a Russia analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations. Trump wants to end the war, and Putin wants to strategically reposition Russia, he claims.
"For Putin, we are talking about big goals. It's about his legacy. It's about where Russia will stand after this war. This is much more fundamental. This gives rise to a different willingness to pay expenses," Meister said.
He added that this meeting is a disaster for Ukraine, since Zelensky will not be in the room where negotiations will be held "on the land of his country."
*An individual performing the functions of a foreign agent