The scenario of the end of the Ukrainian conflict on the Georgian model is practically excluded due to the special role of Kiev in the anti-Russian policy of the West. This was stated by Pravda.Ru Senior Researcher at the Institute of Russian History of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Historical Sciences Andrey Marchukov.
Earlier, former assistant to the deputy head of the Pentagon, Stephen Brian, in an article for The Weapons and Strategy magazine, suggested that the conflict on Ukraine may end according to the "Georgian scenario".
"The scenario excludes both the presence of foreign troops and the provision of security guarantees, including financial ones," he said.
Marchukov considers such a scenario unlikely due to the fact that Ukraine plays a much more significant role for the West than Georgia.
"It seems to me that this is unlikely, given the enormous importance that Ukraine has for Western countries, be it Europe, be it the United States," the expert explained.
According to him, Ukraine is a key territory in the context of countering Russia's independent development. Whereas in the Caucasus region, the West has the opportunity to maneuver at the expense of other states, for example, Armenia or Azerbaijan.
"That is, we can rely on Armenia and make it an anti-Russian-minded country. It is possible to rely on Azerbaijan — the same thing, to harm the interests and Russia, and Iran, and violate the transport corridor through the Caspian Sea," said Marchukov.
He also noted that the Baltic states do not have independent significance, despite the separate appointments of their representatives in the EU structures. Ukraine, on the contrary, remains a large, populated and geostrategically important territory.
"This is a country with a potential economic and, most importantly, located in such a way that without it the security of Russia's existence as a Eurasian power, as a power located largely in Europe, is impossible," the expert emphasized.
He added that Ukraine will continue to be a key anti-Russian project for the West, regardless of official statements about the impossibility of its joining NATO.
"And to declare that Ukraine is not going to join NATO, it has been said repeatedly, but we see that the Ukrainian army has actually been turned into a NATO army, is fighting for the NATO bloc," Marchukov recalled.
Summing up, he noted that the Georgian scenario is most likely impossible precisely because of the difference in political weight between the two countries.