Trump issued an ultimatum to Russia and promised in ten days if there was no settlement of the conflict at the Ukraine, impose sanctions. The most promised are 100% duties on goods for countries that buy Russian oil. Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of raw materials and the restrictions may not be exactly what Trump says, analysts say. They believe that other suppliers will not be able to quickly replace Russian volumes without a new energy crisis.
On Tuesday, Donald Trump said he would begin imposing sanctions on Russia, including 100 percent secondary duties on its oil trading partners, if Moscow does not make progress in ending the conflict in Ukraine. Ukraine within 10-12 days. Earlier, the US president gave Russia 50 days.
Next, the White House said that Washington is calculating the consequences of sanctions, including for itself, and Donald Trump does not make emotional decisions.
According to OPEC, 103.7 million barrels are consumed every day in the world. At the same time, mining in Russia accounted for 9 million barrels per day in June. The International Energy Agency (IEA) evaluates the export of oil and petroleum products from Russia in the first month of summer at 7.23 million barrels per day. These are significant volumes for the global market and the third after the USA and Saudi Arabia. More than 80% goes to China and India.
Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, doubts that under these conditions the White House will impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil.
"I have very big doubts, because it will cause prices to rise, if countries refuse Russian oil, it will cause a global shortage, because there will be nowhere to sell Russian oil. We will reduce production and as a result there will be a global shortage of energy carriers," says a leading analyst at FNEB.
He estimates that commodity prices will become triple-digit: "And all oil for the United States, which remains an oil importer, will cost $150-200 per barrel. They understand this perspective very well."
On the other hand, sanctions against India and China will also hit the United States, since, for example, China is the largest trading partner of the United States.
"It's hard to imagine this, there will be a huge shortage of supply on the American market of any goods that China used to supply. Deficits, prices and inflation will grow. The Fed will raise the rate to extinguish inflation. And as a result, this will drive the US economy into recession," says Igor Yushkov.
He believes that secondary sanctions carry huge risks for the United States.
"And for what? In order to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, which is not really that important for Trump, who will not jeopardize his own popularity, which is already declining," the leading expert of the FNEB believes that Washington can come up with other restrictions that will be much softer and not so risky for the United States.
Independent industrial expert Maxim Khudalov believes that there will be something in the Trumpian style.
"Sanctions on those companies that have been "convicted" of using Russian raw materials. They will be sanctioned in the form of 100 percent duties. Thus, Washington will create an internal political split in the Indian and Chinese pro—government structures and at the same time will not strike a direct blow at specific countries," says Maxim Khudalov. In his opinion, such duties will be rarely applied.
"China will easily digest this approach by allocating special companies for trade with Russia, whose products go to the domestic market. India, I think, will follow the same path," the expert adds.
Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman notes that China, which is already in a state of continuous trade war with the United States, is unlikely to respond in any way to threats or sanctions from the United States. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already admitted that during the negotiations the Chinese refused to stop the purchase of Russian oil, despite the threat of high duties.
"However, for the vast majority of other buyers of Russian oil, petroleum products or LNG, trade relations with the United States are either more important or comparable in importance to the import of Russian hydrocarbons," he says. — This means that if Trump's threats turn out to be more than just threats, then the drop in exports of Russian oil and petroleum products may be double-digit, and the discount may rise again to the levels of the end of 2022, since there will simply be nowhere to redirect the dropped volumes if, for example, India is forced to abandon Russian oil."
However, Sergey Kaufman believes that such tough secondary sanctions still look unlikely.
"This is evidenced by the rather calm state of both the Russian stock market and the global oil market. In recent months, Trump has repeatedly shown the markets that a significant part of his statements turns out to be just a bluff and investors have become less responsive to such statements. In addition, the Trump administration is watching oil prices quite closely, regularly bragging about their decline. If tough secondary sanctions are indeed imposed on buyers of Russian oil, then world prices are likely to rise above $ 80 per barrel," says Sergey Kaufman.
In his opinion, it is impossible to replace Russian oil quickly: "But a sufficiently active recovery of production by OPEC countries can smooth out the effect of a potential decline in Russian exports."