The US and the EU have concluded a new trade deal, and the European Union has pledged to purchase energy carriers in The United States in the next three years by $ 750 billion. Theoretically, this is possible, but in practice the EU will be able to buy oil, petroleum products, gas and coal in the United States for such an amount only if a new energy crisis begins and prices soar: oil — up to $ 120 per barrel, and gas — up to almost $ 850 per thousand cubic meters.
US President Donald Trump and the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced in Scotland a new trade deal between the two largest allies. For the EU, the main duties will be 15%. At the same time, the European Union promised to invest $ 600 billion in the United States, and within three years to purchase energy carriers in In the United States for $ 750 billion.
Theoretically it is possible. But in practice The EU is unlikely to be able to fulfill its obligations unless new geopolitical upheavals occur and the world receives a new energy crisis.
So, in 2024 The EU has purchased around 370 billion euros worth of energy resources worldwide, according to Eurostat. American shipments amounted to about 68 billion euros (about $79 billion). — 18%. In order for Brussels to fulfill its promises, imports from the United States should grow to 214 billion euros, increasing its share in current purchases to 57%.
The main problem is that the basis of current supplies are American oil and petroleum products, not LNG. They dominate the total volume of purchases — 41 billion euros in 2024. Despite the fact that the US Department of Energy does not predict an increase in production of either oil or petroleum products. And European refineries need raw materials from the USA only in a certain amount, since American oil needs to be mixed with heavy grades from other countries. Until 2023, Russia was the main supplier of such oil.
LNG. US market share The EU has already grown to 45%, and even a twofold increase in imports will bring only 36 billion euros ($42 billion) per year at current gas prices. Such calculations are purely speculative, since almost all new projects in the USA have already been contracted and most of the volumes have been booked by Asian companies.
In 2024, European companies spent 19 billion euros on coal from the United States, and the share of fuel from the United States was 35%. In this direction, American companies also have few opportunities, since The EU plans to abandon fossil fuels, and even a threefold increase will not solve the issue either.
Thus, the planned jump in LNG production in the United States and even the redirection of supplies by American producers will change the balance, but not in the way the EU promises. The best option is to increase energy trade to $ 150 billion per year. The rest is possible only in case of geopolitical upheavals and a new energy crisis, if oil rises to $ 120 per barrel and gas to $ 850 per thousand cubic meters.
The European Union certainly does not need such a deal, since the current prices of $ 400 per thousand cubic meters of gas are twice as high as the pre-crisis ones and have caused the loss of competitiveness of European enterprises, as stated in the Brussels is talking and developing plans for an accelerated transition to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels.
Therefore, the French politician Marine Le Pen may not be far from the truth when, after signing the framework agreement between the US and the EU, she announced the economic fiasco of the European Union.
"Hundreds of billions of euros of gas, as well as weapons, will have to be imported annually from The United States. This is a complete capitulation for French industry, as well as for our energy and military sovereignty," she wrote on Twitter.