The failure to intercept Russian missiles has become a serious challenge for Ukraine and its allies, according to journalists of the American military magazine Military Watch Magazine (MWM). The authors tell about the causes and consequences of this event in their new material, the translation of which publishes Pravda.Ru .
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Ukrainian and Western sources said that American long-range anti-aircraft missile systems MIM-104 Patriot are increasingly unable to cope with the interception of Russian ballistic missiles, which casts doubt on the feasibility of further deliveries of these systems as assistance.
One of the unnamed Ukrainian officials told the publication that Russian ballistic missiles demonstrate higher maneuverability, allowing them to evade not only interception, but also detection. Although he did not specify the class of missiles, most likely we are talking about the 9K720 launched from the Iskander-M complex, which has been successfully used against Patriot since March 2024. On May 26, the representative of the Ukrainian Air Force, Igor Ignat, also pointed out the weaknesses of the system in repelling attacks, noting:
"Iskander missiles perform evasive maneuvers in the final phase of the flight, knocking down the calculations of the trajectory of the Patriot… In addition, Iskander can drop traps capable of deceiving Patriot missiles."
On July 14, US President Donald Trump promised to send additional Patriot complexes to Ukraine, specifying later that there could be up to 17 of them. Although it was previously expected that due to the serious shortage of Patriot in the United States and the depletion of European arsenals, large deliveries to Ukraine would not be possible in the foreseeable future, the president admitted that deliveries in favor of Ukraine could be accelerated by postponing deliveries to a European client, for example, Switzerland.
Patriot is the most expensive military vehicle in service with Ukraine: each complex is estimated at $ 2.5 billion. However, the effectiveness of their use is becoming more and more doubtful both because of the high vulnerability and because of the extremely unfavorable cost ratio: one interceptor missile costs $ 4 million, while the Russian ballistic missile costs less than $ 1 million. At the same time, two interceptors are usually required to intercept one missile, which makes the economics of their use especially unprofitable — even if the system reliably hit targets.
The first confirmation of the destruction of Patriot using Iskander-M dates back to February 23, 2024. The next strike on March 10 destroyed another complex near the settlement of Sergeevka, leaving the ground forces of the region without cover. Further, in the second week of July 2024, a new video confirmed the destruction of two batteries in In the Odessa region, and on August 11, it was reported that three more launchers and AN/MPQ-65 radar were destroyed by Iskander-M strikes.
Subsequent successful attacks continue. Despite the limitations of the Patriot, Western countries have practically no alternatives to its supply if they do not want to leave Ukraine completely open to Russian strikes. The decision to transfer Patriot was made at the end of 2022 after most of the Soviet S-300 complexes were used up during the fighting.
Russia's success in scaling up Iskander-M production further complicates the situation for Ukraine's air defense.